Elon Musk warned the entire auto industry recently that if they do not solve self-driving, their company will go out of business and die. Is this a true statement?
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Elon Musk Warns The Auto Industry
Elon Musk warned the auto industry with a harsh statement recently, saying the following:
"Any Car Company That Fails To Solve Self-Driving Will Die"
This seems like a really harsh statement when first reading it and you might think that Elon Musk is simply trying to scare other companies into licensing Tesla's technology, or that he is trying to bring more attention to Tesla's FSD, but let's unpack this statement and the future of transport and see if there is any reality to this statement.
Tesla is the only company trying to solve generalized vehicle autonomy, aiming to have a driverless car, and doing it with only cameras and a computer. So far, this is proving to be true.
Tesla FSD is also improving in safety and lower interventions over time. Many wonder, though, if the rate of progress is too slow for generalized autonomy to happen anytime soon. Some think it's coming in the next year or two, while others think it is decades away.
Elon Musk said that in August (2024), that Tesla will double the intervention rate, which should take drives to about 20 drives before a driver has to intervene during the trip. 20 drives seems like a lot, but Tesla really needs to get this to an obvious marker that shows Tesla FSD being superior to the average human driver.
Elon Musk says that FSD will get to the point that it will be over a year between interventions, meaning the average driver will drive over 10,000 miles before any intervention. When that starts to show up in the data, you can be assured that Tesla's FSD software will be getting close to generalized autonomy.
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Longer And Longer Time Without Interventions
Tesla reported one crash for every 6.57 million miles driven on Tesla Autopilot. This is freeway driving using Tesla Autopilot, which is not FSD, but is still a proven technology.
Soon enough, Tesla's FSD stack will combine the highway and city streets, meaning that I think Tesla's FSD will replace Autopilot for freeway driving. Tesla will find a way to only run FSD on the freeway and avoid changing lanes, and this will create an even longer time between accidents.
Tesla's report also shows that Tesla vehicles not using Tesla Autopilot have an accident about every 1.4 million miles. The United States Average appears to be around an accident every 500,000 miles.
Even manually driving Tesla vehicles is almost 3 times as safe as the average vehicle in the U.S. I can attest to this with my own Model 3 from 2022. It gives me warnings when I deviate out of lanes or I am accelerating too close to the vehicle in front of me. These are safety critical features that keep the driver informed and attentive, even if they seem annoying while they are happening.
Eventually, we are going to see safety stats on Tesla's FSD. It may not be a perfect driving system now, but it's going to get far better than the average human driver. The reasons are this:
- It is always paying attention
- It is always improving
- More and more Tesla vehicles create a larger set of data
- It assists the driver, taking strain away from driving
To circle back to Elon Musk's statement on other auto companies needing to license or solve FSD, it all comes down to economics. If a person can hop in a driverless Tesla for a smooth and safe ride, even if it costs the same as an Uber, I think many will do so. The reason is the car will be clean and private, and you won't have to worry about an Uber driver that isn't paying attention.
Whether this happens this year, next year, or in 10 years, it is coming. Tesla is not going to stop until they solve generalized autonomy and Tesla vehicles can drive around without someone in the driver's seat.
If I were the CEO of another auto company, at a bare minimum, I would start designing vehicles with a camera system that can at least license Tesla's FSD software. That would ensure those vehicles could also be robotaxis one day and not fall victim to falling behind in the autonomy race.
For Further Reading: This Guy Took His Factory OEM Tires For His Tesla To Nearly 60,000 Miles. How'd He Do It?
Is Elon Musk's statement here correct? Do all car companies need to solve self-driving?
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Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.
Image Credit: Tesla, Screenshot
Article Reference: Tesla
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