ARK Invest Touts $2,000 Tesla Price Target: In 4 Years

There is news from ARK Invest that Tesla has a base case price target of $2,000 in 4 years. Here's why.

Tesla: $2,000 Price Target

ARK Invest, an investment company that has Tesla has one of their top investments, released a report today on where they see Tesla going in the future.

Right now, Tesla as an investment is not doing well as Tesla is lowering prices and this means they are not making as much money. I believe Tesla is doing this because they care the most about affordability and getting as many cars on the road as they can.

The reason they want, so many cars on the road is to be able to one day turn on FSD and have every single existing Tesla vehicle drive itself. That is the "Coup de grâce" moment for Tesla against all other automakers.

Back to ARK Invest - Tasha Keeney, who is one of ARK's analysts, released this Twitter thread to talk about Tesla's expected share value in 2027. There are three price targets that ARK has for Tesla by the end of 2027. Here they are:

* Bear Case (Tesla Doesn't Do Well): $1,400
* Base Case (Tesla Does As Expected): $2,000
* Bull Case (Tesla Does Better Than Expected): $2,500

This is in about 3 1/2 years, so it's interesting to think that Tesla could go to 10x its value at that time from where it is now. If Tesla were there today, it would be an absurd valuation and a P/E of about 440. I don't see Tesla going anywhere in the next year or so - it's going to trade sideways, largely, until FSD turns on for the first time and driverless Tesla's start making money - probably in 2024 some time.

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What Will Get Tesla There

Tasha says, the more Teslas are on the roads and autonomy capable, the better. Tesla is basically betting "the farm" on FSD and having a fleet of driverless cars. I think this is a good bet - the bigger the risk, the bigger the win :). I personally invested in Tesla and am not doing it because I'm looking for small growth. I'm taking a big risk and hoping for a big win.

Tasha showed 4 primary EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) for Tesla's batteries per kWh deployed, and it looks like this in 2027:

* Stationary Energy storage: $33
* Electric vehicle: $61
* Electric vehicle with ride-hail: $93
* Electric vehicle with robotaxi: $214

The Robotaxi takes it all, and Tesla will most likely make a Robotaxi vehicle that they do not sell to customers.

Elon Musk has said that FSD will reach autonomy at the end of this year - he's been wrong on this so far and so far, most people are betting against him. However, Tesla has always eventually come through, so we'll just wait and see what happens.

I believe Tesla will have the data to prove its safety of using FSD over not using it, and that driverless technology will be as mandatory as seat belts by the end of this decade.

What do you think of ARK's price targets for Tesla? Are they ridiculous?

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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.

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