Tesla is about to do a wide release of its FSD 10.1. This will mean much more than the current 2,000 beta testers will start to be able to used Tesla FSD and be able to send data to train Tesla's neural net. This is likely the most important moment in Tesla's history.
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How Many People Have Tesla FSD?
If we take an 11% take rate of FSD (that's how many people have bought it), and you have about 2 million Tesla vehicles on the road, then you have 220,000 total people with FSD. This is at the end of Q2, 2021, and according to TroyTeslike, a prominent Twitter user who Tweets about Tesla.
220,000 people is a lot more than 2,000. It's over 10 times as many and I think is on the low estimate because in past quarters, the take rate of FSD was more than 11%. I'm going to assume that most of those who bought FSD (let's say 80%) are going to use it and have data get submitted to Tesla. Does that mean we will see 8 to 10 times as much as progress on FSD?
Progress on FSD
I think it does mean we are going to see increased progress on FSD. More scenarios being sent to Tesla to train their neural net will mean that there will be more things the FSD software has seen before. Think about your own driving and when you are in a new town or area. You drive more cautiously and are prone to more mistakes like missing a turn or getting lost.
The same is true with Tesla's FSD software. As more and more users use it and it starts to get an idea of how to drive all over the world, there will be less and less situations that it hasn't seen before and it will know how to handle them. Imagine having a huge brain that can remember everywhere you've driven in perfect detail and every situation you've ever experienced and be able to make the best choice given all that data in any situation.
That's superhuman driving. That's a driver who is practically omniscient at driving with 8 eyes that see all around. I think Tesla is sandbagging when they say they can get 10 times better than the average human driver. I think Tesla will be able to eventually get 100 times better than the average human driver, if not more.
The reason for this is Tesla will have videos of all kinds of driving situations and environments and there will be nothing it hasn't seen before (that is unless a UFO from an alien comes crashing down on the road). But then, the neural net will just get trained on that and probably just treat it like an object in the road to move around or slow down for!
Caution With Wide Release
I think there does need to be caution with the wide release of Tesla FSD v10.1. With 10 times as many people using it, statistics start to take over and the chance for an accident or someone being careless goes up dramatically. The last thing Tesla needs for progress is some major accident involving FSD that causes fear, panic, and regulation to derail the effort.
I think it's smart that Tesla is taking an insurance approach and making it so that the driver with FSD has to show good driving behavior for 7 days. If this happens, the user can activate FSD. But the driver is going to have to be extra careful and be ready to take over at any moment.
The is a really good video by Chuck Cook, that all users of FSD and upcoming users of FSD should watch and understand:
What do you think of Tesla's wide release of FSD with version 10.1? When will we see version 11? Is progress going to happen much faster with so many more users of FSD?
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and Instagram to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.
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