Expect to see all of Tesla's giga factories reach a 2 million per year run rate - except one.
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Tesla Giga Factories 2 Million Per Year Run Rate
I find some of the most interesting things among the Twitter accounts I follow for Tesla, and this one was very interesting. It's from @B Burnworth, and he talks about Tesla's giga factories and the run rate per year each of them will achieve. One of Tesla's factories will not achieve this run rate, but more on that one later.
We know that Tesla has these current factories that are producing and delivering vehicles:
* Fremont
* Giga Shanghai
* Giga Berlin
* Giga Texas
* Nevada
* Lathrop, CA (energy)
And, Tesla recently announced Giga Mexico, which should start to produce cars some time in 2024.
According to B Burnworth, Tom Zhu shared that all existing giga factories, except one (and Nevada), will expand to around 2 million vehicles per year in production. In the next few years, we should see multiple giga factories producing two million vehicles and new giga factories being built in parallel. These are exciting times.
He's also created a list and timeline of Tesla's giga factory production over time, and I will summarize this. He has 13 total giga factories being up and running by 2030, producing 22.9 million vehicles by the end of that year.
This means Tesla will announce 7 additional giga factories in the next 4 years and that after 2026, Tesla will most likely not build any more giga factories. Each of these new factories should reach a production rate of 2 million vehicles per year.
Tesla is going to need to continue to produce compelling EVs (electric vehicles), that are the safest on the road, that have the best software available, and the best experience inside the vehicle with sound and function in order to make this happen. Tesla will also need to produce multiple compact variants, including a Robotaxi, compact, and single passenger vehicle to make this happen.
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Except One Factory: Fremont
There is one primary factory that won't make it to 2 million vehicles per year, and that is the Fremont, CA factory. I think the reason for this is that the factory is building the Model 3 and Model Y and has limited space to expand. Unless this factory comes up with a radical way to build a car, it's most likely going to be stuck at a maximum of around 800,000 vehicles per year.
In addition to that, the Nevada factory won't contribute that many vehicles - just Tesla Semi vehicles, and the maximum number of those will be around 70,000 per year.
With Tesla's guidance of 50% growth each and every year, if you believe Tesla, then they will get to 20 million vehicles by 2030 - or very close to it. Their plan is really simple too. Continue to cut costs and improve every vehicle, and reach more and more of the market with affordable vehicles.
Tesla could build giga factories beyond these 13 for its Energy Business, and that will be interesting to watch. If it is true that the Tesla Energy business will be worth more than the auto business some day, then I expect there to be more than 13 giga factories just for energy. Right now, we have one dedicated to building Megapacks in Lathrop, CA.
Do you think Tesla will get to 13 giga factories and 20 million vehicles by 2030?
In Related News: Elon Musk Gives Nod to Model 3 - Project Highland
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.
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