Tesla AI and FSD will soon surpass the average human driver and it won't even be close. I expect by December of 2023, that we'll see FSD available to anyone with a Tesla and the first robotaxi rides start to happen.
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Tesla AI and FSD Will Soon Surpass Human Drivers
Tesla's FSD software continues to improve and will only get better as more and more vehicles begin to use it. In fact, by the end of next year, I see Tesla's FSD software as being significantly better than the average human driver - not just a little bit better.
One of the most fascinating things to have watched over the last couple years is the progress of Tesla's FSD software. A couple years ago, it was a bunch of lines and dots on a screen as Tesla first began to have people test it on the roads.
You can see the first versions of Tesla's FSD software here from Dirty Tesla:
It's fascinating to see the logical and visual progress of Tesla's FSD software. Today, the graphical display is much cleaner, crisp, and realistic. A couple years ago, it looked like an old arcade game from the 1980s.
Better Than the Average Human
This video from Chuck Cook demonstrates the progress of Tesla's FSD software to this day. It is able to do unprotected left hand turns with consistent success. It doesn't mean it does them perfect every time, but it is doing them again and again without disengagement:
By this time next year, I expect that Tesla's FSD software will be out of beta and available to anyone who wants to buy it or use it as a subscription. It is $15,000 to buy it up front at the time of writing this article, something I cannot presently afford for my Model 3, but I will br trying it out as a subscription to see if I can make my Model 3 a robotaxi.
The fleet learning is the magic of how Tesla's FSD software gets better. As more and more people use it, more training takes place with more scenarios and situations. It's just like when you turned 16 and learned how to drive. You didn't do very well at first, but you started to learn different situations and get better.
The great thing about Tesla FSD is that it is always on and thinking and never distracted. A human can get distracted, tired, and make mistakes. Eventually, mistakes will be few by Tesla's FSD software and any human intervention will be error.
By December of 2023, I expect we'll see more and more flawless drives and the first robotaxi rides start to happen. This is an exciting time!
Do you think Tesla FSD will soon surpass human drivers?
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.
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