Tesla FSD Enthusiasm Is At An All-Time High - And It Couldn't Have Come At A Better Time: Just As Phase 1 Of Growth In EVs Slows Down

Enthusiasm for Tesla's FSD software is at an all-time high, and this is a good thing, as the first phase of growth in EVs for the Model 3/Y and S/X is slowing down.

Tesla FSD - Enthusiasm At An All-Time High

There is tremendous enthusiasm for Tesla's FSD software right now, and it couldn't have come at a better time. The reason for this is that Tesla's first growth wave of EVs is starting to slow down for the Model 3/Y and S/X. Growth isn't stopping, but it won't grow at 50% per year for these vehicles.

Tesla needs its compact car - or Model 2 - in order to get its EV annual growth volume back to 30% or more each year.

One positive on the vehicle side of things is the Cybertruck, which is ramping quite quickly, with hundreds of them being seen daily at Giga Texas in the parking lot. Last month, it was at close to 100 per day, and now there are hundreds.

Here's a summary of the positive happenings of FSD:

• As this slow down is happening, FSD is now a full AI system that is using only neural nets.
• Tesla appears to be no longer compute constrained based on Elon Musk's latest Tweets.
• There are numerous no-takeover or intervention drives being shown all over, from California to Texas to Utah, showing FSD is not just succeeding in California.
• Rapid progress could mean FSD is feature complete in just a few months.

As this slow down is happening, FSD is now a full AI system that is using only neural nets

If you do any kind of searching for FSD version 12.3 on X or YouTube, you're going to find numerous videos of no intervention drives all around different cities and even from long distances between cities.

One of the most interesting FSD drivers is AI DRIVER, a former employee at Tesla. Here's a video of his showing the many ways that FSD 12.3 seems to have a human brain inside it. In reality, it's just driving based on videos it used to learn to drive FROM humans.

At 12 minutes and 40 seconds, another driver waves at AI DRIVR's Tesla, not knowing it was driving itself, as it let him in to turn right.

Rapid progress on FSD with safer, smoother, human-like, and less intervening drives likely means the take rate will improve. That means more people will either buy it or subscribe to it for $199 a month.

This will boost Tesla's earnings while sales slow down for its older lineup of EVs. This is a net positive for Tesla, as FSD being more widely adopted boosts the entire business across ALL vehicles - sans the Cybertruck, which doesn't have Autopilot yet or FSD - it needs more training videos and calibration it seems, as it is completely different from Tesla's other vehicles.

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Tesla appears to be no longer compute constrained based on Elon Musk's latest Tweets

Elon Musk did recently Tweet that Tesla is no longer compute constrained. This was a month after he was talking about how Tesla couldn't train its neural nets on all the videos available because of not having enough resources.

When he says "accelerate dramatically" it means to me that we'll see huge progress in shorter time. Releases happening over months will happen in just a couple of weeks - or at least, major fixes and improvements will be released every couple weeks now, according to Elon Musk.

Of course, we'll have to wait and see how the next few releases go. If there is no regression in the software, then I think FSD has truly arrived, and there's no telling how quickly we'll have robotaxis. It all depends on regulatory approval and showing that there is MUCH higher safety in a Tesla without a driver than there is in any other situation.

I don't think it will be hard for Tesla to prove the safety of FSD. Just look at all the no-intervention drives being shown on video.

There are numerous no-takeover or intervention drives being shown all over, from California to Texas to Utah, showing FSD is not just succeeding in California

The numerous no-takeover and no-intervention drives showing up all over X and YouTube is very encouraging for FSD. It's not perfect yet. There can be issues with construction and curbs - especially in the Model S and Model X. I believe these will get resolved quickly in future updates.

As FSD improves, I think we're going to see longer videos of driving - hours at a time, driving around seeing if there needs to be intervention. These videos will enhance the credibility of Tesla's FSD software.

Rapid progress could mean FSD is feature complete in just a few months

In a few months, it's quite possible we are going to see intervention free drives not just a few times in a row, but ten times or twenty times in a row - and then hundreds of times in a row.

What happens when Tesla's FSD software is driving thousands upon thousands of miles in a row without intervention or incident? I think regulators are going to have to take it VERY seriously and consider it for approval in Tesla vehicles without a driver.

Now, Tesla still needs to do some work to make this happen. The cameras need some kind of way to know when they are foggy or dirty, so that they can be automatically cleaned.

In addition, in extreme weather, there needs to be some kind of decision-making in the software that says whether the car can drive as a robotaxi or not. I don't think FSD could drive in extreme rain, hail, or snow, for example.

I see Tesla expanding robotaxis in certain areas - starting small to prove that everything is working, and then, it will grow from there. It's not going to be an aggressive rollout - it must be done carefully. There literally cannot be any accidents or injuries from a driverless Tesla, or it is going to make headline news and could derail robotaxis.

If 9 people are saved by having driverless Tesla vehicles, but 1 still gets harmed, it's going to be a difficult situation. That's worth another article and discussion, as it seems to be a moral dilemma.

Regardless, this is an exciting time for Tesla and AI in general!

For Further Reading: Elon Musk Gives Praise To His Team At Tesla - And Especially Those Working On the Production Line Or In Serivce

What do you think about Tesla's FSD software? Will it boost Tesla while the older lineup of EVs slows down?

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Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.

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