Tesla Has Been Growing At Over 50% CAGR For Deliveries Since 2013: Why This Growth Will Continue For Years To Come

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Tesla, despite all the negative press it gets, has been growing at a 50% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) for its deliveries since 2013. This is a fast-growing technology and robotics company that happens to make EVs.

Tesla - 50% CAGR Growth For Deliveries

Tesla has many naysayers who get far too much attention. Many of them say that Tesla has a demand problem and cannot continue to grow. This is completely false, and I'm sorry to share that this "busted growth story" had yet another record-breaking quarter last quarter for Q4 2023.

James Stephenson on X, famous for his charts on Tesla, shows that Tesla has continued to grow at a 50% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) since 2013, showing that this is a growing company. I see this growth continuing to the end of the decade as Tesla releases new vehicle models.

It's also important to note that this is ONLY for EVs (electric vehicles) and simply selling them to customers. This is only one very small piece of Tesla's entire business.

James has this to say about Tesla:

One more chart, for anyone confused over whether Tesla has been growing at 50%:

Tesla deliveries growth has been compounding at an average annual rate of 55% since 2013 (ten years!). 👀

(note logarithmic scale) (also note that every year during this period, critics warned of "a demand cliff", said "the growth story is over", and "competition is coming")

These calls for Tesla slowing in growth and that the competition is coming are going to continue as companies announce their new EVs. Yet, Tesla will still continue to grow.

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Will This Growth Continue?

Someone said that this is not a 55% CAGR, but instead 37.5% on X, and James responded with the formula for calculating a CAGR. Here it is:

The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is a measure of the average annual growth rate of an investment over a specified period of time. It is calculated by dividing the ending value of the investment by the beginning value, raising the result to the power of 1/n, where n is the number of years, and then subtracting 1.

The formula is as follows: CAGR= (Ending Value/Beginning Value​) *(1/Number of Years) −1

Alternatively, you could just multiply the 2013 deliveries of 22,442 by 1.55 ten times in a row.

Now, the question is, will Tesla continue to grow at this rate since 2013? I think so, and the answer is very simple. It is the release of 2 or 3 new EV models. These EV models are:

That's it. These 3 simple vehicles will take Tesla through 2030 to 2032 and get Tesla to 20 million vehicles produced per year. The compact car is Tesla's next vehicle model that it will release and should be Tesla's highest priority. This vehicle should also only have two falcon wing doors that reveal the front and back seats for simplicity and sell for $25,000 or less.

The thing about the robotaxi vehicle is that it will be incredibly simple to build and can only have two seats in it, with no pedals or steering wheel. It can have doors that simply lift and down, further adding to simplicity.

Tesla should make this vehicle at the lowest cost it can, while still running its cameras and FSD software to maximum capability. Tesla should sell this vehicle or produce it in-house for autonomy and ride-sharing. I believe Tesla will make it for less than $20,000 and that may be too conservative.

The Cybertruck, while a cool and amazing vehicle that is turning heads, will be but a footnote in Tesla's growth over the next decade.

In Other Tesla News: Tesla Employee Confirms That Optimus Humanoid Robot Will Join the Tesla Assembly Line

What do you think about Tesla's CAGR of 50% each year since 2013? Will Tesla continue this growth rate?

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Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.

Image Credit & Article Reference: I_CANNOT_ENOUGH On X