We have an indication that Tesla production and deliveries might be higher than what analysts are thinking, despite a near week shut down in Giga Shanghai. Let's go over the numbers.
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Will Tesla Beat Q1, 2022 Expectations?
Due to Giga Shanghai" target="_blank">Giga Shanghai having nearly a week shutdown, most analysts and those who estimates Tesla deliveries and production numbers are lowering their predictions. Giga Shanghai has still grown quite a bit and is providing the majority of Tesla's production.
We have a pretty good idea of what Fremont will produce, and the two wild cards are Giga Berlin" target="_blank">Giga Berlin and Giga Texas - but they won't have much of an impact - if any - for this quarter. However, for next quarter, we should gain a lot of knowledge from how Tesla is ramping production from those two factories.
If we have production and delivery numbers from Tesla" target="_blank">Tesla that beat expectations, then it just means that we took too much of a drop in estimates than what actually happened. If the numbers come in as expected or lower, then we will know that the down time from Giga Shanghai played a significant role.
Production Numbers
Let's look at what Tesla Daily YouTuber, Rob Mauer, thinks the numbers will be?
Giga Shanghai produced 68,117 vehicles in January and 55,308 in February. Giga Shanghai had about 3 1/2 days of down time. He has a prediction for March of 58,784 vehicles. That puts his Giga Shanghai prediction numbers for Q1, 2022, at 182,209.
He also has a total production prediction for Fremont of 131,585. If you just use these two items, you get a total of 313,794, which is about a 3% increase from last quarter. Not bad with delays in Giga Berlin and shut down days for Giga Shanghai.
Rob also thinks Tesla will decrease their inventory and because of the lock downs in Giga Shanghai, deliveries could be slightly higher than production. We could see a delivery number of 312,294.
Analysts were predicting 312,500 before the Giga Shanghai shut down. Now they are at around 309,000. I think Tesla will beat that? There's a lot of issues Tesla is facing still with down time in Giga Shanghai and supply chain issues. But I still think Tesla will beat last quarters numbers and increase year over year by about 70%.
What do you think Tesla's deliveries and production will be for Q1, 2022? Will they beat Q4, 2021?
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.
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