Elon Musk Stated goals
Elon Musk Stated goals
2017 at least 30% reduction in price.
2020 at least 40% reduction in price once GF is fully operational.
At this point electric powertrains reach cost parity with ICE powertrains or get very close.
With added cost to meet 2025 Federal CAFE and European Carbon limit standards cost for ICE powertrains will likely exceed EV powertrain cost. No magical exponentially better battery technology required.
At the most recent shareholders meeting Elon Musk said he has become more optimistic about reaching these battery cost goals.
Elon has mentioned a new battery chemistry but he has not released details as these are likely Panasonic patents not Tesla ones. Expect linear not exponential gains, reaching those price reduction targets would be almost impossible without some increase in energy density. JB Straubel and Elon Musk have stated they expect Lithium Ion to dominate for ~10 years then be replaced by something else. They do not expect lithium ion to dominate for decades. They believe Tesla GF will be easily upgradeable to any new chemistry on the horizon.
Every EV blog I read mentions new press releases of new advanced batteries that are exponentially better but have a skeptical attitude. Poopooing EV fans for being gung ho about radical advanced battery technology is striking down straw men.