I can agree with your short
I can agree with your short of oil in the short term from the recent peaks. However, the Saudis play great poker like the Chinese. A recent call by a Saudi prince for lower oil doesn't agree with calls today by Goldman-Sachs predicting $5 gasoline this summer. That won't happen if oil goes to $30; plus a drop to that level seldom if ever happens in a few months; only when gasoline prices rise and demand curtails; an unlikely scenario with China and India demand.
You say OPEC cannot control demand. Well, they can in the short run if they control supply by throttling it and the price wisely; hence, the Saudi prince's call for lower oil prices, which I suspect may be a smokescreen. Of course, they cannot control it in the long run; nobody cannot despite all the efforts. Too high of prices for too long by the Saudi's hurts demand and their internal agenda. They want gradual price rises and thus price stability. It's the rise and fall shocks that kill them.
They know nat-gas is on the horizon, too; but the American auto industry has opted to follow the other path - full electrification. It's disconcerting to see Honda as the only auto manufacturer in the U.S. with a viable nat-gas vehicle for the general public.
Frankly, I'd like to see America take the lead with nat-gas automobiles as well as trucks. Imagine the effect on oil then! It may drop in the short run until China and India ramp up their auto production; for they are potentially a bigger auto market than America, and will have a greater impact on oil demand and thus price.
Thanks for the respectful comments! Great discussion.