Dear Al, to your earlier post
Dear Al, to your earlier post:
GM cutting 15,000 jobs has zero to do with EV market, but rather production inefficiencies, which have been present for years. But this aside, how do you explain Tesla cutting a whopping 7% of their workforce? Imagine that: a world leader in EVs cutting jobs! But, Ford is shuttering many plants as well, so is Tata etc. In short, the biggest market in the world took a big hit for the first time ever, competition is growing and everybody is adjusting. As they should. Including Tesla. Bravo! And i suspect some may worry a recession is coming soon. We are overdue...
As far as Cadillac's forward looking statements: that's all they are - forward looking statements. Renault issued even bigger EV promises about a decade ago, go beat them up! If large vehicles which North American market loves give you an allergic reaction, please beat up Ford as they have been an absolute leader in this sector for many decades (F150). So go after the big fish and leave Cadillac alone, as they are a small niche player and no matter what they do, they will not save the planet. Neither will Tesla for that matter.
The reality is, current EV market (which statistically also includes hybrids btw) accounts for a measly 1.1% of North American sales (per 2018). If you separate California from the stats this number goes down to about 0.5%. You call this revolution? What would you call the remaining 99.5% then? In real terms an EV market is a luxury novelty item - not a revolution. If you still disagree, i have a deal for ya: I will swap your $990 for my $10, ok?
I applaud zero emission targets. Who wouldn't? But, plug in EVs create a zero sum game pollution wise, as they need to be plugged into a grid. And the grid is powered by coal, gas and biomass. By and large. Sure there is growth in wind and solar, but they are a statistical minority (and will remain as such for decades to come).The are very capital expensive and their infrastructure lasts a fraction -time wise. That's why all green power generation is heavily subsidized by tax payers (hydro excepted). The main issue with the grid is that electricity is actually very scarce and can hardly keep up with global population growth. Every year 85mil of new humans pop up on a map. That's just like a new Germany appearing every year. And they all need electricity for basic lives. Forget cars! And many countries cannot afford green. So...1350 new coal powered power stations went online last year. So please ponder if increasing grid requirements by plugging in some 2 billion vehicles is a good idea for our environment et al.
No manufacturer has bet the farm on EVs yet. What they proclaim in forward looking statement is not yet reality. What they are promising over the next few years is yet to be realized. Without mass market adoption and healthy profitability there is no business. Unless you are single lux market focused Tesla and benefit from ongoing benefits of subsidies (read: tax payer's gifts). GM would be irresponsible to bet the farm on Volts and Bolts, as not enough folks are buying them. That's a fact proven over several years now. Also I am very glad they didn't just re-badge a Bolt into a Caddy as they would get absolutely pulverized for it and for very good reasons. Remember when a Cavalier became a Cimarron? Oh the horror! Thank goodness they didn't try THIS again!
As far as the future - no doubt it will deliver major change. Just like any tech, propulsion means will likely change as well. I hope it is not based on plug ins, but rather hydrogen cell, or something similar. To this end, not many folks know that both Toyota and Honda are running a large hydrogen cell pilot in Canada. Utilizing existing gas station infrastructure for distribution (now that makes sense don't ya think?).
Hydrogen cells offer more range, fully recharge as fast as filling up a regular gas car and avoid the grid capacity and pollution dilemmas. All of these are huge benefits over plug ins. Whoever provides effective distribution network (think existing infrastructure!) will be an automatic market leader. That's why Mr Toyoda didn't mind publicly stating that his company is not jumping onto a plug in EV fan train. But it is what he didn't say that may matter the most!
PS Dean, btw, i completely agree with your thoughts as expressed above. Well said indeed.