Nice write up. Warren is very
Nice write up. Warren is very knowledgable about Tesla's battery research and technology, but I think that he puts too much concentration on Tesla committing to LFP batteries. Tesla's alliance with CATL was a smart one because they will be able to lower the price of Chinese Model 3s and Ys using those less expensive batteries. And also Tesla's Chinese customers will qualify for Chinese New Energy subsidies by having Chinese-produced batteries. But I do not see Tesla expanding that alliance unless they cannot scale their own Roadrunner batteries. The whole point of doing all of their research on developing and testing the new batteries was to give Tesla the option to not be reliant on Asian battery manufacturers that dominate the battery market today, and who have aggressive plans to control battery materials supplies and battery production for the highest profit. It is interesting to think about Tesla developing their own LFP battery. Maybe using Maxwell's dry electrode design and Hibar's manufacturing technology. But I don't think that this is planned in the short term. I do agree that there will be battery design and composition specific to use and market. Specifically the Powerwalls, which do not have space or use constraints that passenger vehicles have. These storage specific batteries could easily use LFP for cost savings. Otherwise, for each of the instances that Warren mentioned using the LFP batteries in their passenger vehicles, I would substitute Tesla's own Roadrunner batteries, which will offer lower cost and reduced pack size along with faster production and higher energy density. But I don't see the short term vehicle price drops as dramatically as Warren predicts using his LFP batteries for Tesla vehicles.