You are making an awful lot
You are making an awful lot of assumptions, and most are in favor of the F150 Lightning. I will be VERY surprised if we see dealers selling many (if ANY) $40K Lightnings in real life. To be fair, Tesla could also drop the base Cybertruck in the 11th hour, as they have done with their entry models in the past. But it is way too early to make any real comparisons. It is pretty funny to say that the Cybertruck is Vaporware, because NOBODY is yet building or selling ANY EV trucks yet. My guess is that the 1st to market will be Rivian, but I believe that the Cybertruck will beat the F150 Lightning to market in early 2022. Ultimately, it truly doesn't matter at all who is first to market. But it will matter when you see your neighbor actually driving an EV pickup truck. Even though most gas powered vehicle owners like to only compare one EV against another EV, ALL EVs REAL competition are the gas and diesel powered vehicles that they will be replacing. 2022 will be a watershed year, where many new EVs will finally be available to buy. Ford, Tesla, and Rivian will sell every single EV that they can build. So we only have to wait and see how well these new EV trucks compare to the established fossil fuel trucks that currently own 100% of today's new truck sales.