I don't know if it'll take 3
I don't know if it'll take 3 years to get one without a reservation. On the Model 3, I put the 1k down on the opening day of reservations. I was able to buy my car on 7/1/18. In less than a year, people were able to buy one even without the reservation. If you are looking for the tri-motor configuration, you'll probably be able to get one soo er as many of the people want the cheaper version.