Good article. This really
Good article. This really appears to be a rational look at ALL the problems facing the automobile. The solution to the energy peak oil issue can be addressed, however, by immediately switching to natural gas. It burns the cleaner than gasoline; and we have ample supplies in Amercia. Furthermore, the next-gen IC engines will likely be HCCI and/or split cycle with air hybrid which will burn even more efficiently.
Solve the peak oil problem totally? No, but it is a significant step in that direction. Unfortunately, the EV as it is designed and configured right now simply has too high of an upfront cost to make a difference; and hoping for a magical reduction in cost via more EVs is not the solution as it is self limiting simpy by using lithium. At the very least we need a lithium-air battery, better yet zinc-air of which we have greater supply to meet global needs. No sense in creating a peak lithium scenario.
In my opinion, electrification does not have to be all or none either. We can have both as we have with hybrids. I see more electrifcation coming even with downsized IC engine use, especially with stop-start; and nat-gas would avail even greater gains. A system approach might be our best overall bet until that one stand-out solution appears.
Ultimately, a full EV with the same driving range and replenishment time as a gasoline engine supported by a clean energy source is the ideal. Problem is, the ideal energy source like wind and solar simply cannot supply enough electrons to support the hungry grid and our dependence on electricity. A single source of energy is not wise either. So, we'll likely have to live with a combination of wind, solar, hydro, nat-gas and nuclear. Each is a part of a solution, and that is how I see the industry going through 2030.