David: Well written! This
David: Well written!
This Osborne Effect has been repeated many times throughout the x86 family, and more recently the iMac and iPhone families. Dramatic feature improvements from generation to generation initially drove rapid computer upgrade cycles. Two year old computers were outdated and inferior. It was cheaper to upgrade As technology advancements slowed, a few percent improvement in speed or incremental functional changes slowed the pace of new generation adoption, allowing the replacement of desktops with similarly priced laptops. Eventually, desktops and laptops were replaced with mobile devices offering similar functionality at lower cost.
Now that generational innovations are slowing (2G, 3G, 4G), customers delay their next purchases waiting to see if incremental feature additions justify further investment.
Similar to early computer hackers, hobbyists hacked together forklift motors and batteries to build cars with limited speed and range long before OEM manufacturers standardized the process and moved technology dramatically forward.
Electro-motive technology is moving forward by leaps and bounds. Frequently older technology peaks before new technology takes hold. I think the auto industry is in the midst of this transition. While smart phones add cameras and texting to cell phones, people still turn to their land lines in times of emergency.