A123's new 2,000 cycle
A123's new 2,000 cycle battery is also much more temperature tolerant. Apparently it won't need a cooling system.
I've lived through (at least) three major technology shifts - slide rules to calculators, ledger books and typewriters to computers, and film to digital. They've all played out the same way. The initial technology was a bit limited, a bit clunky, and expensive.
But after a relatively short period performance improved and prices fell. Early adapters pointed the way for those who flocked to the new technology in short years. Two years after the first scientific calculator came to market the two largest slide rule manufacturers quit production. Computers took about a decade to become common, starting with the Apple II in the early '80s. The first sort-of-affordable 2 meg digitals capable of making a decent 8" x 10" print appeared around 2000 and ten years later film was becoming a niche product.
With early digital the solution was to use longer lenses because one couldn't afford to crop away precious pixels. Now the sensors are 8x or more capable of capturing detail and it's easier to crop than to carry larger lenses.
I don't have a crystal ball, but I certainly won't be surprised if we see very much improved batteries very soon and when/if that happens ICEVs and PHEVs will be, at best, niche products.
I just ran some numbers on another site. Let me copy them over here because I think they illustrate why, if we get better batteries, EVs will dominate...
Average US miles driven per year = 13,000.
Nissan Leaf 0.31/kWh per mile.
4,030 kWh per year. 11 kWh per day.
Most of the lower 48 gets at least 4.5 solar hours per day.
2.5 kW of solar panels would produce enough electricity to power an EV for 13,000 miles a year.
In Germany installed PV solar now costs less than $2.25/Watt. No subsidies included.
At $2.25/Watt you could purchase all your EV "fuel" for the next 40+ years for $5,625.
That's $11.72 per month to fuel your ride. Fixed, inflation free, price for the next 40+ years.
And I used solar only because the numbers are more accessible. Wind generated electricity is considerably cheaper.