Elon Musk just said that it is "probably something like that" when asked if a billion Tesla bots would be available in the 2040s.
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A Billion Tesla Bots In the 2040s
Elon Musk responded to a statement today on X, about the Tesla humanoid robot. This was the statement said by X user, DavidSHolz:
We should be expecting a billion humanoid robots on earth in the 2040s and a hundred billion (mostly alien) robots throughout the solar system in the 2060s.
About an hour and a half later, Elon Musk responded with this statement:
Probably something like that, provided the foundations of civilization are stable
Tesla Bot is currently something that is difficult for most analysts on Wall Street to estimate, because nobody knows what it will sell for, what it will do, and how the economics of it works.
However, many on X have modeled out what the future work of the Tesla humanoid robot will be. Even Gary Black, a Wall Street analyst is starting to ask questions about the Tesla Bot - and he is generally very conservative and realistic in his view of Tesla, factoring in mostly automotive and energy in his models, with a 10% take rate of FSD.
Gary's exact statement on the Tesla Bot today was this:
Does anyone have a $TSLA Optimus model they want to share? Production x (Rev - COGS) - R&D - SG&A? How would TSLA price Optimus? $20/hour savings x # hours/year x useful life? How does production scale? @MartinViecha
He has also said that he is generally interested in information about the Tesla Bot. It's possible that future forecasts for Tesla will include something about the Tesla humanoid robot.
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Elon Musk and Tesla AI
Tesla Bot falls in the portion of Tesla that is working on creating AI. This AI is what is called "real world AI". There is also generative AI, which something like ChatGPT uses. Grok, on X, also uses this same kind of AI.
Elon Musk has certainly had his share of the spotlight in controversy recently, with some feeling like he is robbing Tesla by wanting 25% of the company when he has ~13% right now. He sold about 3% of his Tesla shares to help fund the Twitter acquisition - with others helping and investing too.
Elon Musk is concerned about other large investors gaining control of Tesla and its AI, which is one reason he wants the 25% - to make it harder to undermine Tesla. I also think Elon Musk needs a new compensation package because he is working for free right now.
The Tesla Bot is Tesla's moon shot in that if it truly helps solve human labor, nobody really knows what that will mean in terms of revenue and profits for Tesla.
There have been Tesla Bot economic models done and they all point to a massive amount of revenue starting with the simplest jobs at $5 and as the job pays more, so does the revenue and profit increase.
The Tesla humanoid robot is one reason why Tesla is worth more than all other automakers combined.
Based on Elon Musk's statement today, he certainly seems to be thinking BIG with the Tesla humanoid robot.
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Do you think Tesla will have a billion Tesla Bots in the 2040s? Will this benefit humanity for good?
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Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.
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Article Reference: Elon Musk On X | Gary Black On X
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