Tesla, a very large company today, is not even 1% of the way to its ultimate maturity and growth. Here's where Tesla is now and here is where it is going in the future.
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Tesla at 1%: A Journey to 100% Growth and Beyond
Imagine a seedling, barely breaking through the soil, representing just 1% of the mighty oak it's destined to become.
This metaphor aptly captures where Tesla stands today in its journey toward redefining transportation, energy storage, and autonomous technology.
Today's Tesla: The 1% Mark
As of late 2024, Tesla's electric vehicle (EV) production hovers around 2 million vehicles annually, with ambitions to escalate this number significantly.
Its energy division, particularly battery storage like the Megapack and Powerwall, has shown impressive growth, with deployments expected to more than double this year, hinting at Tesla's burgeoning role in renewable energy solutions.
Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, while still in its supervised phase, shows incremental progress with each update, aiming to revolutionize how we perceive road travel.
Far less than 1% today is the Optimus humanoid robot, being used just for demos right now.
The numbers today:
- EV Production: Approximately 2 million vehicles per year.
- Energy Storage: Projected to deploy at least 9.1 GWh in Q4 2024, with revenue streams becoming increasingly significant.
- FSD: Continuous improvements, yet still in a phase where human oversight is necessary, indicating we're at the infancy of its potential.
- Humanoid Robot: Generating no revenue today, this is barely even a startup company at this point.
Now, let's project these numbers into a future where Tesla achieves what might be considered its 100% growth potential:
- EV Market Penetration: If Tesla scales to produce 20 million vehicles annually, as some enthusiasts speculate for the 2030s, we're looking at a world where Tesla not only leads the EV market but significantly influences global car sales patterns. At this scale, Tesla's automotive revenue could potentially surpass $600 billion, assuming an average selling price that reflects increased affordability.
- Energy Ecosystem: With energy storage solutions growing by 200-300% annually, Tesla could be deploying terawatt-hours of storage, essentially becoming the backbone of a new, sustainable energy grid. This growth would not just transform Tesla into an energy titan but could also see energy margins enhancing profitability far beyond what's seen in automotive sectors. Elon Musk has said this will grow bigger than the automotive business and likely be more than $600 billion/year at maturity.
- FSD and Autonomous Vehicles: Imagine a future where Tesla's FSD technology matures, leading to a fleet of Robotaxis. If Tesla captures even a fraction of the global taxi and ride-sharing market, we're discussing a service that could generate revenue in the trillions. This isn't just growth; it's a paradigm shift in personal and public transportation.
- Humanoid Robot: Today, the Optimus humanoid robot is a show - able to do some cool things, but not yet ready for factory work and being a personal assistant in the home. In the future, the Optimus robot will be wanted by every person and every business. A billion of these will be made - far more than anyone can imagine today, but I bet Elon Musk sees this far ahead. This is many multiples of trillions of dollars in the future.
From 1% to 100%, the transformation in Tesla's business model would be monumental:
- Scale: From a niche luxury and EV maker to potentially the largest vehicle manufacturer by volume, and the most significant energy company by storage capacity.
- Technology: Today's supervised FSD could evolve into a fully autonomous driving ecosystem, where the concept of driving might become antiquated.
- Economic Impact: At 1%, Tesla influences stock markets and automotive trends. At 100%, it could dictate global energy policies, urban planning, and redefine employment in the transportation sector.
- Cultural Shift: Today, Tesla enthusiasts are a significant, vocal minority. At full potential, Tesla's vision might be as ubiquitous as electricity in homes, with "Tesla" becoming synonymous with sustainable living and mobility.
Conclusion: A Glimpse into the Future
Tesla at 1% is a company on the cusp of exponential growth, where each innovation today seeds the forests of tomorrow.
Comparing today's metrics with a future where Tesla reaches its envisioned zenith isn't just about scaling numbers; it's about envisioning a world transformed by sustainable energy, autonomous travel, and perhaps, human-robot collaboration.
This journey from 1% to 100% isn't merely about growth; it's about Tesla's potential to evolve from an automotive and energy company into a cornerstone of future civilization's infrastructure. It's about humanoid robot assistants walking among us like regular people.
As we stand today at what might be just the beginning, the future looks not just electric, but thrillingly autonomous and energetically boundless.
Is Tesla barely 1% of the way to its ultimate growth?
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Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.
Image Credit: Tesla, Screenshot
Article Reference: Tesla
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