Add new comment

The press is gleefully, and perhaps inaccurately, reporting that the Prius is the top trade in by those purchasing new Tesla Model 3 cars. If you will allow us a "straw man" argument, "A new green car leader" is the sort of general theme to the stories, and some report that Elon Musk was the person who delivered the news. First off, it wasn't Elon Musk, and second what was said is a bit different than is what is being widely reported. Then there is the third issue - Tesla doesn't even accept trade-ins in every location or in every state.

Before we go too far, Toyota has sold 53,436 Prius cars (total Prius family cars) through the end of July. Tesla has sold about 38,000 Model 3 cars in the U.S this year. Toyota has sold over 6 million Prius cars globally since the model was developed about two decades ago.

The Prius has always had its share of haters. The performance car community was the first, and arguably the most logical, of the fuel-sipper's hate club. The Prius is the antithesis of a performance car. Oddly, the EVangelists have found a reason to hate on the world's top-selling green car as well. It's hard to explain their motivation since quite a few EV owners are prior Prius owners. Perhaps some really just want battery-electric cars first and foremost. It's hard to say.

Let's break down the news as it was generated, not as it was reported. First up, here is a clipping of Tesla's August 2nd earnings call. The transcript is free from Seeking Alpha and NASDAQ offers a link to it from their own site.

Speaker: Robin Ren - Tesla, Inc.
Yeah, this is very interesting. So, we looked at what people who are buying Model 3 cars in the United States, what cars they are trading in. What we found is through this year, from January to July, the top five non-Tesla cars people are trading in to get into a Model 3, they are Toyota Prius, BMW 3 Series, Honda Accord, Honda Civic and Nissan Leaf.

Speaker Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Really surprising.

Speaker Robin Ren - Tesla, Inc.
Yeah. They are surprising because they are not the traditional premium sedans. They are actually – many of them are mainstream midsized sedans.

Speaker Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Right. And we're obviously at this point not yet selling our $35,000 car, so this is promising for the future. All right. Cool. Next question?
(End Quote)

We've added the word "Speaker" to the transcript to help make it flow and we made bold the words, "Top-five non-Tesla cars." As it turns out, Tesla did not reveal that the Prius was the top trade in. It may well be, but the speaker, Robin Ren, excluded Tesla cars from the trade in list. Why do that if the top five does not include a Tesla model? It isn't necessary to point out that Tesla models are excluded unless one of them is in the top five.

Second, Ren does not tell us they are "in order." We presume they are. But why make any presumptions? Last, what about the states in which Tesla does not accept trade-ins? Tesla may very well have a detailed survey that reports this info and has included it. We don't know.

What we know, that many publications reporting on Model 3 trade-ins don't, is that Prius owners often own a second or third vehicle. It makes sense to us that they would trade in the Prius for a Model 3. If you are wondering what cars, trucks, and motorcycles former Prius owners may be holding on to, check out our report on the other vehicles Prius owners also own.