The Tesla Cybertruck production ramp appears to be going far more smoothly than anyone anticipated. Since the end of April, Tesla has increased Cybertruck production by 50%, reaching an annual run rate of 75,000 Cybertrucks per year.
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When Tesla first started delivering the Cybetruck, the company tempered expectations, saying that Cybertruck production would not reach meaningful numbers until 2025.
Elon Musk further poured cold water on the Cybertruck hype, stating that the Cybertruck will not be material to Tesla’s financials until 2025 or beyond.
With this guidance, many expected the Cybertruck production ramp to be slow and difficult. However, today's new Giga Texas production number suggests that Tesla might have sandbagged Cybertruck expectations.
A few weeks back, Tesla announced that the company had, for the first time, reached a Cybertruck production rate of 1000 per week in late April. When extrapolated for the full year, this is a production run rate of 50,000 Cybertrucks annually.
This was a massive milestone; however, in less than a month, Tesla appears to have increased Cybertruck production to 200 trucks a day. This information comes from Joe Tegtmeyer, who routinely flies drones over Tesla’s Texas facility.
Following his recent Giga Texas flyover, Joe wrote, “Production continues moving along at Giga Texas, with around 200 produced daily now! As we saw on Friday, none are visible in the multi-level parking garage, but many are in the E old lot, W outbound lot, and more are coming out of the factory exit!”
A production rate of 200 Cybertrucks per day translates to 1400 Cybertrucks per week and 75,000 Cybertrucks per year.
On its own, a production run rate of 75,000 Cybertrucks per year is incredible; however, what is even more impressive is that Tesla has increased Cybertruck production by nearly 50% in about three weeks.
Elon Musk repeatedly explains that when predicting a production ramp, we should analyze it as an “S” curve—production starts to ramp slowly at first. It will accelerate quickly in the middle part of the S curve before tapering off at the end once fully ramped.
A fifty percent production number increase in just three weeks suggests we have very much reached the middle part of the Cybertruck production ramp S curve.
Tesla has not provided any detailed guidance on the Cybertruck production ramp. Publicly, the EV maker is taking a wait-and-see approach; however, internally, things appear to be going far more smoothly than the production ramp for other Tesla vehicles.
Tesla plans to produce as many as 250,000 Cybertrucks annually when the truck’s production line is fully ramped. At 75,000 Cybertrucks per year, Tesla is already 30 percent the way from reaching peak Cybertruck production rates.
Cybertruck production ramp compared to other Tesla products
We all remember the pain Tesla experienced when attempting to launch the company’s first mass-market vehicle—the Model 3. According to Elon Musk, the Model 3 ramp brought the whole company to the brink of bankruptcy.
To personally deal with all the difficulties associated with the Model 3 ramp, Elon Musk famously had to sleep on the production floor at Giga, Nevada, where the Model 3 battery pack and powertrain are made, and at the Fremont, California factory, where Model 3 final assembly takes place.
Musk recounts the difficulties of the Model 3 production ramp as one of the toughest challenges in Tesla’s and his personal history.
However, since the Model 3 ramp, Tesla appears to have learned valuable lessons on smoothly increasing vehicle production.
Tesla’s China factory, Giga Shanghai, achieved peak Model 3 and Model Y output with minimal drama and pain.
Tesla’s Model Y production ramp is especially noteworthy here. Only three years after starting production, Tesla was able to make the Model Y the best-selling vehicle in the world, whether electric or internal combustion.
When Tesla went from producing a single Model Y to 1.2 million Model Ys per year, we heard little drama about the production ramp. Even more impressively, Tesla simultaneously ramped up Model Y production in four factories across three continents.
Two of these four factories, Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, were new factories in an all-new location. The Fremont, California, and Shanghai, China Model Y ramps also included massive expansions of the already-built factories.
The Model Y production ramp went much more smoothly than the Model 3's. Now, Tesla appears to have incorporated further lessons from both vehicle programs, and the Cybertruck production ramp appears to be going even smoother.
4680 cell production update
Early on in the Cybertruck production ramp, Tesla identified 4680 cell production capacity as the limiting factor for Cybertruck production growth.
According to the company’s latest update, Tesla has said 4680 cell production remains ahead of Cybertruck production. A few weeks before Tesla reached 1000 Cybertrucks per week, the EV maker announced that it had reached 4680 cell production numbers, enough for one thousand Cybertrucks per week.
Since then, Tesla has not given any concrete 4680 cell production numbers. Tesla will likely announce the next milestone when the company reaches 4680 cell production, equivalent to 2000 Cybertrucks per week.
2000 Cybertrucks per week translates to over 100,000 Cybertrucks per year or a little more than 40% the way from planned peak Cybertruck volumes.
Currently, Tesla has yet to hit the 100,000 Cybertruck annual production run rate milestone; however, we’ll be sure to keep you posted as the EV maker increases Cybertruck production.
Until then, visit our site, torquenews.com/Tesla, regularly for the latest updates.
So, what do you think? Are you surprised to learn that Tesla grew Cybertruck production by 50% in less than three weeks? Also, will there be enough demand for 250,000 Cybertrucks per year? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below by clicking the red “Add new comment” button.
Image: Courtesy of Joe Tegtmeyer on YouTube
For more information, check out: A Tesla Cybertruck Seen at a Gas Station Powering Several Gas Pumps Allowing ICE Vehicles to Fill Up – A Cybertruck Comes to the Rescue After a Power Grid Failure in Oil-Country Texas
Tinsae Aregay has been following Tesla and the evolution of the EV space daily for several years. He covers everything about Tesla, from the cars to Elon Musk, the energy business, and autonomy. Follow Tinsae on Twitter at @TinsaeAregay for daily Tesla news.
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