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Last night, Tesla held the much-anticipated “We, Robot” event and unveiled a smaller Robotaxi and a larger Robovan. During the presentation, Elon Musk set out an ambitious production target.
Elon Musk specifically spoke about the Robotaxi, saying production will start in 2026 or “at least before 2027.”
A lot of Tesla investors were happy to hear this aggressive timeline; however, it doesn’t appear that everyone at the EV maker has gotten the memo.
Tesla’s lead engineer, or more formally “VP of vehicle engineering,” Lars Moravy, is among those surprised by Elon Musk’s pronouncements.
Following the We, Robot event, Tesla’s top executives, including Lars, were making rounds amongst attendees and answering questions.
One individual, Kim from the Kim Java YouTube channel, talked to Lars along with Tesla’s Chief Designer, Franz von Holzhausen.
The three of them discussed the Robotaxi vehicle parked behind them. Franz was in the middle of answering a question from Kim when Lars suddenly stopped them and said, “Did he [Elon Musk] say 2026? I missed that. I’ll be right back.”
Together with this statement, Lars held his head to emphasize further that he was in trouble.
Here's an improved audio version of the vid 😀 pic.twitter.com/ViEmMp1Xrt
— Ariel (@arielus_tdf) October 11, 2024
Overall, Lars was likely trying to exaggerate things to have a comedic effect. However, it’s still surprising that the lead engineer is not on the same page as to when the Robotaxi is staled for production.
What’s even more surprising is that Lars is not only the lead engineer but also the lead person responsible for turning the prototypes into customer-deliverable products. In addition, Lars is in charge of tooling the factory and ramping up production.
This then raises the question: If even Lars, the highest-ranking executive in charge of actually building the vehicles, is not aware of when the Robotaxi should start production, can we take Elon Musk’s 2026 timeline seriously?
A modern vehicle consists of tens of thousands of parts, is built in partnership with thousands of suppliers, and requires close to a hundred thousand steps and processes.
In addition, even though Tesla is planning to first build the Robotaxi at Giga Texas, the EV maker will still need to construct new factory space where the vehicle can be assembled, order new machinery, and hire tens of thousands of new employees.
As far as large construction projects are concerned and quickly ramping up vehicle production, Tesla actually has a good track record. It took the EV maker only nine months to go from the groundbreaking ceremony to finishing Giga Shanghai.
Tesla’s Austin factory, Giga Texas, was equally impressive, taking only a year. However, even considering Tesla’s speed, if the lead engineer is just learning the production timeline, it is going to be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to meet the 2026 deadline.
As mentioned above, even if Tesla can spool up the factory quickly, the thousands of suppliers involved will need help to meet this deadline.
When will the Robotaxi start production?
Even before we discuss when Tesla will start Robotaxi production, there is an elephant in the room regarding when Tesla will achieve level 5 autonomy.
Creating a fully self-driving vehicle is one of the hardest technological challenges the brightest minds of our generation are tackling.
So far, Tesla has made great strides in this front; however, given the magnitude of the problem, it’s not at all certain that Tesla will unlock level 5 full self-driving before 2026.
Case in point, since 2016, Musk has been promising that fully self-driving vehicles are only a year away. However, eight years later, the company has yet to crack the code.
For Tesla’s current vehicle lineup, this might not be too big of an issue; however, the Robotaxi doesn’t have a steering wheel, pedals, or any other controls to drive the vehicle manually.
This means Tesla can only start Robotaxi production after it solves level 5 full self-driving capability.
However, let’s give Musk the benefit of the doubt and take him at his word that Tesla will begin autonomous ride-hailing services in Texas and California next year.
Even in that scenario, if Tesla employees start working full-force on the Robotaxi starting today, I still don’t expect the vehicle to start shipping before 2027 at the earliest and, more realistically, 2028.
Can Tesla Initially produce a manually driven “Robotaxi?”
From the start, Tesla planned to produce two vehicles on the Robotaxi platform—one autonomously operated and the other manually.
However, Elon Musk did not like the compromises involved in building an autonomous/manually driven vehicle and instructed his top executives to focus solely on the Robotaxi.
Given this decision, it might be difficult for the automaker to adopt the Robotaxi platform into a regular vehicle. However, even if Tesla is able to do this, it’s not clear; there is a lot of demand for a manually driven two-seater vehicle.
Overall, we find it interesting that Tesla’s lead engineer wasn’t informed about the 2026 Robotaxi production timeline. This proves that there are still too many things up in the air concerning the vehicle.
We’ll be sure to keep you updated as more information becomes available. Until then, please let me know what you think about the whole Robotaxi situation. Share your ideas by clicking the red “Add new comment” button below. Also, visit our site, torquenews.com/Tesla, regularly for the latest updates.
Image: Courtesy of Tesla, inc.
For more information, check out: Update: GEICO Confirms Tesla Cybertruck Insurance Policies Were Terminated Due to “Repair Challenges,” but Will be Reaching Out to Affected Customers
Tinsae Aregay has been following Tesla and the evolution of the EV space daily for several years. He covers everything about Tesla, from the cars to Elon Musk, the energy business, and autonomy. Follow Tinsae on Twitter at @TinsaeAregay for daily Tesla news.
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