Pike Research issues 10 electric vehicle predictions for 2012

In order to analyze the impacts of key issues facing the EV industry, Pike Research has prepared a FREE white paper (see end of article for link) that makes ten predictions about the continuing evolution of the market in 2012 and beyond.

Looking at the introduction, though, the first element that pops out is the opinion that there will be greater diversity of choice for EVs in 2012. Many TorqueNews readers would likely concur with that assessment as 2011 already brought out a host of EV and PHEVs.

As a TN summary for the 2012 predictions, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will take major strides toward becoming a mature. In fact, Pike Research relates the global market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will grow to more than a quarter million vehicles in 2012.

Still, EVs will remain a small component of the overall automotive fleet; meaning, the IC engine will not die anytime soon, and especially in 2012. However, the variety of options for consumers will expand rapidly.

There is a factor that caught my eye as a day trader, though. It is the use of the term, “Solyndra Effect.” This implies that any company that receives investment funds from the government will likely have to live under very close scrutiny by the media. Furthermore, the Obama Administration’s goal of 1 million PEVs on the road by 2015 will not be met. Gee, nobody in Washington is talking about that one!

Nonetheless, the auto and energy industries are just now beginning to see the fruits of multi-billion dollar investments in recent years in lithium-ion battery manufacturing facilities, and will provide abundance in capacity that could outpace demand. On a surprising note, Pike Research states that any oversupply will not impact vehicle pricing.

And in this reporter’s opinion, price is a major factor that will affect adoption by the masses. Many people want to buy green or as green as they can afford. However, with prices in the $35K and up range, (and that’s without any government subsidies), the financial burden on average workers is still too great to make the switch away from the IC engine. It is the reason my own wife, Judi, chose a Chevy Cruze over a Chevy Volt.

Topics covered in the paper include the following:

- Global sales forecasts for EVs in 2012
- PEV pricing issues
- Car sharing services
- Battery production trends
- Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies
- EV charging infrastructure
- Commercialization of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs)
- EVs in the smart energy home

This Pike Research white paper analyzes ten key trends that will influence the development of the electric vehicle market in 2012 and beyond. Conclusions and predictions in this paper are drawn from the firm’s ongoing Smart Transportation research coverage, with forecasts included for key market sectors.

What does this report answer?

1.) What will be the most important developments in the EV industry in 2012?
2.) How will the price of EVs impact consumer demand?
3.) Which regions of the world will advance EV development?
4.) What will be the driving forces of EV charging infrastructure?
5.) Will battery manufacturing keep pace with vehicle demand?

Final TN Assessment

It was interesting that the fire at the NHTSA with a Chevy Volt was commented on; and that public perception will require education so they receive facts, not hype or over-blown assumptions.

And most surprising was the statement that the United States will also see the last of the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) funded by Department of Energy grants installed.

Click here for access to your free copy: http://www.pikeresearch.com/research/electric-vehicles-10-predictions-for-2012

-----------------------
About the Reporter: After 39 years in the auto industry as a design engineer, Frank Sherosky now trades stocks, futures and writes articles, books and ebooks like, "Perfecting Corporate Character," "Awaken Your Speculator Mind", and "Millennial World Order" via authorfrank.com. He may be contacted here by email: [email protected] and followed in Twitter under @Authorfranks
________________________________________________
Additional Reading:
China retaliates, taxing US-made car imports
China puts squeeze on rare earth customers with export restrictions
NTSB recommends ban on all cell-phone related communications while driving
TorqueNews Exclusive: Fred Fresard, attorney for Dykema, addresses Chevy Volt fire
GE Energy to sell GE WattStation EV charger via Amazon