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In 2030, A 200-Mile Range EV Will Cost $5,000 - And the Cost Decline Doesn't Stop There

A 200-mile range EV will cost $5,000 in 2030. And this will not stop there - cost declines will continue.
In 2030, A 200 Mile Range EV Will Cost $5,000 - And the Cost Decline Doesn't Stop There

Huge Changes Are Coming in Transportation and Energy

There are huge changes coming in transportation and energy. The cost of an autonomous vehicle in the future will be less than just the cost of burning gasoline fuel.

In addition to that, by 2030, there will be a $5,000, 200-mile range EV and by 2046, that same EV will cost $300. At that point, transportation is virtually free.

I don't think the Tesla Model 3, the upcoming compact car (which will be produced at a breakneck pace), or even the sub-compact car will make it to the $5,000 price point, but the sub-compact car won't be too far off.

In a video from Tony Seba, he goes over the cost declines of transportation and energy over time using Wright's Law - a continuing cost decline of goods and services - in this case, EVs, as production doubles, cost also declines at a consistent rate.

Tony Seba also says that batteries will go down by 80% over the next decade and by 2030. He also says that a 100% wind and solar/battery energy storage world is possible.

He talks about the clean energy U-curve, which says:

You can trade off energy storage and energy generation. The more energy generation you have, the less storage you need.

He also says a car, like the BYD Seagull, with a 30.8 kWh battery, is just over $11,000 in China.

You May Also Be Interested In: The Next Generation Tesla Is Going To Be Produced At a Breakneck Pace: At Least Twice As Fast To Make As A Model Y And 5 Million Per Year Or More

A $5,000, 200-Mile Range EV in 2030

In 2030, a 200-mile EV will cost $5,000. This is exceptionally affordable, and no other ICE car can compete with an EV at that price.

This is a 94% decrease from the Model S at $80,000 in 2014. In 16 years, there will be a 94% decrease in cost for a 200-mile range EV.

When you look forward to the future, say the year 2046, which is another 16 years beyond 2030, you get a 200-mile range EV that costs $300 ($5,000 * .06) or 94% less than $5,000.

That cost decline is almost unfathomable to think about: a 200-mile range EV that costs $300.

With the continuing cost declines of batteries, though, it starts to make sense. It will be about $3 per kWh in 2050, which is astounding. A 200-mile range EV will have an about 40 kWh battery, which will cost $120.

By 2035, he says emissions will be reduced by 90%.

He outlines these 5 bullet points, which I think sums up what he is trying to say:

  • Energy costs trending to ZERO
  • Transportation costs trending to ZERO
  • Food costs trending to ZERO
  • Intelligence costs trending to ZERO
  • Labor costs trending to ZERO

All that is missing is medical/health costs...

Tony Seba goes on to talk about how food and agriculture will also benefit from cost declines in energy and storage, helping transform society into a much more abundant civilization - creating super abundance - more than we need.

In Other Tesla News: Tesla is Sandbagging Cybertruck Production as 80+ Cybertrucks Are Ready for Delivery at Giga Texas

What do you think about a 200-mile range EV costing $5,000 by 2030? Will this be the year the ICE vehicle is finished?

Share this article with friends and family and on social media - or leave a comment below. You can view my most recent articles here for further reading. I am also on X/Twitter where I post more than just articles daily, as well as LinkedIn! Thank you so much for your support!

Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.

Image Credit, Tony Siba - Via the Electric Viking, Screenshot

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Comments

Nicholas Bocca (not verified)    December 25, 2023 - 10:11PM

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Lmao, this is a joke right? There's more to cars than just a battery. And with the decrease in availability of fossil fuels, prices for tires are likely to increase. Tires alone will cost more than $300 by 2030, they already. Let's not not forget all the other countless materials used in cars. This is the pipedream of all pipedreams. The average price of EVs will start to rise, just like every other car, once sales begin to match that of ICE vehicles.

Chung (not verified)    December 26, 2023 - 4:56AM

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Maybe the author is referring to after hyperinflation and the govt lops off a several zeroes off the currency.

Yes, raw materials like steel, aluminum, copper, etc still go up in price year after year.

TR (not verified)    December 25, 2023 - 11:56PM

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There's a shortage of heavy metals for the batteries and grid capacity has been maxed out years ago. Not going to happen. The pipe dream may be in 2060-70 at the earliest if we start adding to the grid soon. If and when EVs become popular prices will increase. Supply / Demand principle. Lately, EV prices have been cut due to. Slow sales. Tesla and Ford have cut prices and production. Not enough charging stations for long-distance travel either. Who wants to wait an hour or more on a trip to charge? You're an idiot!!!