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Elon Musk Makes Bold Statement: Predicts That In the Next 5 Years, If Tesla Executes Extremely Well, the "Long Term Value Could Exceed Apple and Aramco Combined" - A $5 Trillion Market Cap and $1,600 Share Price

Elon Musk responded to a thread about Tesla's final stock price at the end of the year, $248.48, and stated that Tesla, in the next 5 years, could be worth more than Apple and Aramco combined if Tesla executes extremely well.
Elon Musk Makes Bold Statement: Predicts That In the Next 5 Years, If Tesla Executes Extremely Well, the "Long Term Value Could Exceed Apple and Aramco Combined" - A $5 Trillion Market Cap and $1,600 Share Price

Tesla: Worth More Than Apple and Aramco

Elon Musk has made a bold statement and said the following:

I stand by my prediction that, if Tesla executes extremely well over the next 5 years, that the long term value could exceed Apple and Aramco combined

He followed up with another statement:

As I say though, exceptional execution is needed for this. It will *not* happen “by itself”

The reason this is a bold statement is that Tesla, right now, is at a $778 billion market cap and worth $248.48 per share. This is FAR less than Apple and Aramco right now.

Apple is worth: $3 trillion

Aramco is worth: $2 trillion (rounded down from $2.13)

That's a $5 trillion market cap. Tesla would have to increase by 6.43 times in order to get at or exceed that amount.

If Tesla gets there in five years, it will be the year 2028 and Tesla will look like this:

Market Cap: ~ $5 trillion

Stock Price: ~ $1,600

If this happens, Elon Musk will become the world's first trillionaire.

That's a big jump, and Elon Musk said that Tesla will have to execute EXTREMELY WELL over the next 5 years. But, the fact that he said this statement means he believes it can happen.

This will require exceptional execution and getting results at Tesla. Many Tesla bulls already believe this will happen and then some, however, I don't think Elon Musk, even if he believes Tesla can do even better than this, will say it, to keep expectations in check.

Tesla must do many things in the next 5 years to make this goal, and I think they are clear.

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What Tesla Must Do

Vehicles

Tesla must continue to build out their fleet of vehicles for the Model Y, Model 3, and the Cybertruck. Tesla must get to 500,000 units per year for the Cybertruck. Then, Tesla must get to 2 million units per year for the Model Y. Tesla must get to 500,000 or more for the Model 3.

That gets you to 3 million vehicles per year. The Model S and Model X will still sell, but they won't be a significant part of the equation.

Tesla must build the compact car at Giga Texas, Giga Berlin, and Giga Shanghai. Tesla will eventually build these at Giga Mexico and Giga India, but those factories aren't ready yet.

This will produce another 10 million vehicles, putting Tesla at 13 million vehicles in 2028.

Giga Factories

Tesla must finish construction of Giga Mexico. This factory will be crucial and build the next generation compact car.

Tesla must expand Giga Texas, Giga Berlin, and Giga Shanghai. Tesla must finish ramping Lathrop for the Megapack, and also finish the Megapack at Shanghai.

Those two factories must reach 40 GWh per year of production of the Megapack.

Tesla Energy

Tesla energy must be selling out of Lathrop and Giga Shanghai, with additional locations mentioned and ramping to full volume, such as Giga Berlin, Giga Mexico, and Giga India. If those locations are ramping energy just as much as Lathrop and Shanghai, that bodes well for Tesla Energy.

Tesla will continue to sell PowerWall and Solar Roof, however, those won't matter nearly as much as the Megapack.

Tesla FSD Software

Tesla will need to solve FSD by 2028 so that cars can drive autonomously. Then, Tesla needs to have software that will drive the car at least at a level 4 autonomy scale.

People must be able to make money while they sleep with their Tesla vehicles. These cars must be much safer and more capable than a human driver.

Tesla Bot

By this time, Tesla Bot should be contributing in Tesla's factories and be fore sale for others for simple tasks, such as cooking and household cleaning.

It should be clear that Tesla Bot has a path forward for world-wide use in a variety of tasks.

Tesla Insurance

Tesla insurance isn't too necessary for earning revenue, but it should be in more U.S. states - if not all 50 U.S. states, by 2028. This will be needed and make it simpler for FSD to operate in Tesla vehicles and to make them robotaxis. Tesla insurance is tied into driving behavior and how FSD drives.

Spoiler Alert

And, here's the spoiler alert. If Tesla does all the things I just mentioned, it's going to be worth A LOT more than Apple and Aramco in 2028.

Shhhhhh, don't tell anyone :)

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What do you think about Elon Musk's statement here that Tesla will be worth more than Apple and Aramco in the next 5 years if Tesla executes exceptionally well? Do you think Tesla will succeed in this?

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Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.

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