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Heated Debate Rages On Trying To Predict Tesla's 2024 Deliveries - Who Is Right?

There is a heated debate going on when it comes to Tesla's 2024 deliveries with Troy Teslike, Meet Kevin, and Gary Black. Let's see who is right.
A Heated Debate On Predicting Tesla's 2024 Deliveries Is Going On - Who Is Right?

Heated Debate About Tesla Deliveries For 2024

Troy Teslike is on one end of a debate about the prediction for Tesla deliveries in 2024. Tesla has stated they will grow at a 50% production rate every year after 2021 with some years up and some years down. The debate is how many vehicles Tesla will deliver in 2024.

Tesla is expected to deliver at or just over 1.8 million vehicles this year, and around 480,000 for Q4 2023, which is what Tesla guided for. For 2024, the debate rages on and estimates are anywhere between 2 million to 2.5 million vehicles.

For Tesla to grow 50% in deliveries, they would have to deliver 2.7 million vehicles in 2024 and that is probably not going to happen. Tesla only has the Cybertruck as a new vehicle, and it will likely reach around 100,000 to 150,000 Cybertrucks per year by the end of 2024.

Toy Teslike recently did a poll on Twitter, and it had two options for Tesla deliveries in 2024. These were the options:

  • 2 million with higher EPS
  • 2.1 million with lower EPS

Troy does not think 2.2 million is possible at all. There were many responses to his X posts criticizing Troy for his low estimates. However, Troy has also been a very accurate delivery forecaster for Tesla over the last year.

Troy says that Tesla is demand limited outside the Cybertruck and doesn't see interest rates as having an effect on Tesla's deliveries.

One comment said this about Troy's estimates for 2024:

Troy has been off his game-let’s see how far he is off this time.

There are many comments of this tone and I think the reason that they are happening is that Tesla investors/Tesla bulls who are invested don't want Tesla to slow down in deliveries because it means the company is slowing down.

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The Other Side of the Debate

The other side of the debate comes from Meet Kevin and Gary Black. These two think that Tesla deliveries will be around 2.3 to 2.4 million vehicles.

Meet Kevin sees deliveries around 2.3 to 2.4 million because interest rates are going to come down, which will make Tesla vehicles more affordable. This gets Tesla back to over 30% yearly growth.

He goes on to say:

I think that's wrong, Troy. I think interest rates absolutely affect car demand. Car sales are only going up because they are going out of a Covid hole. We are still below the long-term trend since 2016. We are still trying to get back to the trend line of where we were.

He also says that interest rates will drive Tesla's production and deliveries, as well as building new Gigafactories. Essentially, we are well below the historical trend for vehicle deliveries and there's a lot of room to grow.

He says ideally Tesla guides to 2.5 million vehicles for 2024, but I think that will be a bit of a stretch...

Gary Black, another Tesla analyst, had this to say about the whole thing:

I have utmost respect for TroyTeslike. He is by far the best analyst at forecasting TSLA deliveries. Where we disagree is 1/ I believe Troy’s 2024 deliv estimate of 2.0-2.1M is too low; 2/ Troy believes TSLA is battery constrained in the US but 4680 capacity will continue to ramp, alleviating the US battery situation; 3/ I believe TSLA will realign their price matrix (raise M-Y prices to offset price cuts on M-3) after Jan 1 to adjust for the $7,500 off invoice credit on M-Y and loss of the $7,500 credit on M-3 RWD and LR.

Where we agree: 1/ There is no way $TSLA will get to 20M delivs by 2030 (my 2030 forecast is 10.2M) from 1.8M today unless TSLA radically changes how they think about advertising vs price cuts; 2/ $TSLA should not have cut prices by 15-20% in 2023 (4-8% in line with COGS reductions would have been ok to hold margins) since they got little or no volume growth from the price cuts. TSLA valuation would have been far less impacted to buy down auto loans rates to 3-4% which would have looked smart now as int rates fall.

One thing about $TSLA. They are never static. I believe they will find a way to get at least $3,750 back on M-3 RWD and LR EV tax credit.

Gary also sees Tesla delivering around 2.3 to 2.4 million vehicles next year, with interest rates coming. I say 2.3 to 2.4 million because he says 2 to 2.1 million is too low - Gary didn't give an exact number, but that's my prediction to what he is thinking.

He is not in favor of price cuts, particularly for vehicles that are luxury items like the Model 3 and Model Y. He is also heavily in favor of Tesla advertising.

With these different opinions, somebody is going to be right - or closest to what Tesla actually does... Who is it going to be?

In Other Tesla News: Elon Musk Says, "He Is Utterly Wrong" On Ross Gerber's Comment That "Less and Less People Are Buying Tesla Cars Because of Elon's Behavior"

What do you think about this debate - who is right, or who will be the closest to right for Tesla 2024 deliveries?

Share this article with friends and family and on social media - or leave a comment below. You can view my most recent articles here for further reading. I am also on X/Twitter where I post more than just articles daily, as well as LinkedIn! Thank you so much for your support!

Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.

Image Credit: New China TV

Article Reference: Troy Teslike | Meet Kevin | Gary Black

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