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Piper Sandler Sees Tesla's HUGE Vision For Full Self-Driving Happening And Take Rates at $500 Per Month and 100% In 2030

Piper Sandler released a bullish analysis on Tesla recently, seeing take rates increasing on FSD and it being near 100% at $500 per month by 2030. With 20 million Tesla vehicles on the road, that's $1.2 trillion in value.
Piper Sandler Sees Tesla's HUGE Vision For Full Self-Driving Happening And Take Rates at $500 Per Month and 100% In 2030

Tesla May Have Solved FSD - Piper Sandler

In a research analysis of Tesla, Piper Sandler, a research investment firm, suggests that Tesla may have finally figured out FSD and how to make a driverless Tesla vehicles a reality.

This analysis looks at how important FSD version 12.5 is, which has had numerous positive reviews on the X platform as well as videos showing it in action working near flawlessly.

Tesla has had a history of over-promising on FSD - at least as far as the timeline is concerned, but that timeline seems to be happening now, hear in the middle of 2024.

Tesla is having an upcoming robotaxi event on October 10th, which is in 2 1/2 months. This event is not going to be like Tesla's other events. Tesla isn't doing this to distract from flattening EV sales, says Piper Sandler, but instead is shifting the focus of the company to FSD to show just how important that is for the future.

Is Tesla going to stop making incredible cars then? Not at all. Tesla will continue to innovate with its EVs, making them better and better, and making new versions periodically like they did with the Model 3 Highland and the upcoming Model Y refresh, which should happen some time next year, Juniper.

Tesla is also making more affordable EV models next year that will bring the price down to the $25,000 through $30,000 range. These new vehicles will be built on the robotaxi platform as well as the existing platform, creating a hybrid development approach.

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The Future Of FSD

Piper Sandler looks at FSD right now for Tesla's valuation and says that without it, Tesla would be worth about $77 per share, dropping it by 77%. However, FSD is clearly something that is real and improving, so it makes sense that investors are accounting for it.

Piper Sandler sees FSD take rates surging as 2030 approaches and achieving a near 100% take care. They also see the monthly cost going up to $500 per month.

When you look at Tesla's growth over time to 2030 and assuming Tesla gets to just 5 million vehicles produced per year in 2030, you realize that there will be 20 million Tesla vehicles on the road at least from the Model S/X/3/Y/Cybertruck/Compact/Roadster vehicles and those will have steering wheels and FSD.

At $500 per month as a monthly subscription for FSD, that's $100 billion per month just in subscription revenue that is basically pure profit outside of tax. Extrapolate that out to a year, and you have $1.2 trillion per year in subscription revenue just for 20 million Tesla vehicles.

Add to that the recurring revenue from robotaxi rides, including those from Tesla's owned fleet of robotaxis, and the numbers do get a little crazy. It will also be interesting to see if Tesla sells the robotaxi vehicles to customers. I think Tesla should sell ALL its vehicles to customers and not own any of its vehicles.

This lets the customer both BUY the vehicles and PAY a monthly subscription cost for FSD. This is a big win for Tesla and also the customer who lends their vehicle out as a robotaxi.

I think FSD take rates will surge sooner than 2030 with the rate Tesla's FSD software is progressing. By the end of next year, I'd expect that we'll see some kind of version 13 (or 14) that is ready for driverless operation - probably in select locations, but I expect that to branch out very quickly.

You will see YouTube personalities and other videographers start to get in driverless Tesla's and taking them on challenging rides, such as going across the entire United States in a driverless Tesla.

It's an exciting time to be a Tesla enthusiast and with FSD improving so rapidly, it appears that Elon's focus on FSD was the correct thing - even if it was later than he originally though or promised.

For Further Reading: This Is It - FSD 12.5 Is The Beginning of Tesla's Driverless Robotaxis

What do you think about Tesla's pivot to FSD as the focus and Piper Sandler's research analysis? Would you call this accurate?

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Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.

Image Credit: Tesla, Screenshot

Article Reference: Tesla

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