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Tesla in 2027: Bird's Eye View
There is a valuation model of Tesla that has surfaced from ARK Invest. A model like this is interesting to look at because you can take many of the different factors related to the business and the economic environment overall, like interest rates, and forecast the growth of a company.
In 2027, ARK Invest has forecasted a most likely case for Tesla as follows:
* Share Price: $1,402
* CAGR: 50%
* Gross Margin: 40% Maximum
* Gross CAPEX Per Vehicle: $10,000
* Annual Vehicle Production Increase: 55%
* Robotaxi Year Launched: 2025
* Robotaxi Miles Per Year: 110,000
* Average Sale Price Per Vehicle: $33,000
There's quite a bit more than this, but I think they have the right idea in what they are calculating. An EV is much cheaper to own than an ICE car, even with the battery causing the vehicle to be a little heavier and the tires needing to be replaced more often.
Even in the BEAR case, Tesla is still doing well and in the BULL case, Tesla is doing amazing and Robotaxis are all over the roads.
50% of Tesla vehicles will use Tesla Insurance by 2027, and I think this is not an unreasonable expectation. As long as Tesla keeps improving Tesla Insurance, it's going to be a no-brainer decision.
You may also be interested in:
- Fake Tesla's are everywhere.
- Owning a Tesla without home charging.
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Tesla Beyond 2027: Micromobility and Neighborhood EV
In the model is a very important table about Tesla's vehicles and future vehicles. One thing to note is that Tesla could delete the Model S and Model X, and it would hardly make a dent in the company for the future.
Tesla's future is going to largely be determined by these vehicles, ordered by average selling price:
* Cybertruck: $55,000
* Model Y: $53,000
* Model 3: $40,000
* Compact: $25,000
* Neighborhood EV: $15,000
* Micromobility EV: $7,000
It's interesting to see that there are vehicles listed after the compact car, which we know Tesla is going to build. The neighborhood EV and micromobility EV are vehicles that Tesla will build after the compact car for countries that need an even cheaper EV. Tesla will continue to learn to halve the cost of production and half the time to build an EV.
It's interesting to see that there is no mention of a van here, even though Tesla has stated that this is something they want to build. The TAM (total addressable market) for the neighborhood and micromobility EV dwarfs all of Tesla's other vehicles.
I see the last two EVs there being useful in India and China.
Beyond 2027, Tesla is going to be focusing more on it's smaller vehicles to flood the world with autonomous vehicles and to have all countries using Tesla vehicles. Just looking at the vehicle business, Tesla is going to do exceptionally well in the future. If they solve autonomy, which I believe they will, they are going to be a company unlike any other. You will need a telescope to see second place.
Where do you see Tesla going in 2027? For more information, see this video from Steven Mark Ryan:
In Related News: Production Beta View of Tesla's Cybertruck
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.
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