Can Chinese Carmakers Dethrone Toyota In The United States?

The first quarter of 2024 has passed and Toyota finally revealed its sales figures for the period. January and February are typically the weakest months for the car business, and Toyota among other carmakers got hit relatively hard, with a 6.9-percent decrease in sales. For the purpose of this article, I am focusing on sales figures for North America and the areas where Toyota has lost the most foothold. 

How many cars did Toyota sell in the first quarter of 2024? 

Despite the sales plummeting in the beginning of 2024, Toyota managed to sell 1,504,147 cars in the first quarter of 2024, marking an increase of 1.4 percent. 

How does Toyota fare in North America? 

Global sales are up by 7.6 percent and the biggest credit for that goes to North America, where Toyota marked an increase in sales of 20.6 percent for the first quarter of 2024. This translates to 407,516 vehicles sold during that period.  

In the US, alone, Toyota marked an increase in sales of 19.2 percent for the first quarter of 2024. For Canada and Mexico, those numbers are up by 32.5 and 25.7 percent respectively. 

I am also including Lexus sales here. In North America, Toyota's luxury arm, Lexus, saw a substantial increase in sales in 2023, with its most popular model being the Lexus RX350h.

Where is China taking market share away from Toyota? 

Chinese carmakers are dominating their home turf, but they also made a strong foothold in Europe in recent years. Despite that, Toyota sales are looking good in Europe, with Toyota marking a 7.8-percent increase. This is largely thanks to France and Spain where Toyota saw an increase of 19.2 and 15.2 percent, respectively. In Scandinavian countries, Toyota sales went up 20.8 percent. 

But not all is well in Europe. Toyota sales in the UK went down 19.1 percent, but Russia took the biggest hit, with a 97-percent drop in Toyota sales. What do these two markets have in common? A strong influx of Chinese car companies, offering products much more affordable compared to those offered by legacy carmakers like Toyota. 

Toyota took the biggest hit in sales, in Asia 

Although Toyota's Asia sales are down by just 1.1 percent for the first quarter of 2024, there is an obvious trend of decreasing sales. Things are more apparent if we look at the sales per region.  

Toyota sales in China are down by 0.7 percent, but February saw a drop of 35.7 percent. For Indonesia, those numbers are 7.4 percent for February and 11.8 percent for the first quarter. Toyota sales in Vietnam took the biggest downturn, with a 73.9-percent drop in sales for February and a 54.6-percent drop for the first quarter of 2024. 

In India, Toyota is seeing a reverse trend compared to most other Asian markets. In India, Toyota saw an increase in sales by 38.9 percent for February and 44.9 percent for the first quarter of 2024. The 2025 Toyota RAV4 will also be available in India, and judging by the SUV's popularity in other markets, it is bound to aid the brand's positive trend in India. 

Chinese carmakers have their sights on North America, but should Toyota worry?

It's no secret China is the largest and fastest-growing automotive market. The same is true for Chinese car manufacturers, which have already flooded most European markets and much of Asia. BYD and Nio are among the top Chinese car brands, and they are gearing up for North American entry in the coming years.

American car manufacturers are also exploring opportunities for partnering up with Chinese carmakers. A case in point is Stellantis, which is considering strategic alliances with Chinese companies like Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologies while Stellantis’ South American division is also considering an alliance with BYD. 

In North America, Toyota's stellar reputation for reliability, value retention, and value for money will continue to ensure dominance in the car market. In Asia, things are not as sunny, but I think the determining factor would be if Chinese vehicles prove to be reliable enough long-term. In any case, it will be some time before Chinese carmakers come to North American shores, and longer still to make a dent in other companies’ sales. 

Dimitar Angelov's automotive interests made him an expert in a wide variety of vehicles. Japanese brands like Toyota are closest to his heart, although performance cars in general are his favorite segment, which is why he is constantly on the lookout for the best deals on the market. Dimitar Angelov's car passion and knack for the written word led him to complete a Master of Arts in Media and Communications, and classic car restoration. Dim is happy to get behind the wheel of any car and share his impressions. You can follow Dimitar on X, Linked-in, Instagram, and Facebook.