China Continues To Outstrip West With EV Sales Now At Over 1M A Month Resulting In Scary Future

China just broke their own 2023 record for EV sales, which are running at over 1M a month, while the European market is down 4%, and total EV sales for the year are only 9.8 M. Sales in China this year are 6M, in Europe they are 1.9M, in the US and Canada 1.1M, and the rest of the world only 800K. China is dominating EV sales and with the prediction that EVs will pass ICE (Internal Combustion Engines) sales globally just short of 2030 and reach near full saturation (over 90% of vehicles sold) by 2040. 

In contrast, China already has over 50% EVs and PHEVs (Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles), and EVs alone are expected to be where the rest of the world will be, in terms of percentage sales, by the end of 2025.

This means that China is running nearly half a decade ahead of the rest of the world on this EV pivot and accelerating which may have them at 90% EV sales by 2030 or a decade ahead of the rest of the world.

What This Means

Currently, China is the largest importer of gasoline in the world. They import this gas mainly from Iran, Brazil, and the US. Much of the Iranian-sourced gasoline is being rerouted from Malaysia, the UAE, and Oman to bypass US sanctions. China’s massive move to EVs will significantly reduce the need to impart gas, which would be a significant problem should they go to war and overcome related sanctions and blockades. This reduction in the need for foreign gasoline resources increased their willingness to go to war and, likely initially, put Taiwan and the Philippines at higher risk.

This will also increase trade deficits between countries, like the US, that currently supply gas and oil to them, with increasing adverse economic impacts on those countries. China is currently facing some extreme economic problems, which this decline in foreign gasoline dependence could somewhat offset, also making the country more willing to take international risks. 

This massive EV dominance also gives China some enormous economies of scale with electric vehicles, and, in numbers, they already dominate the market even though their sales outside of China have been restricted by Tariffs and sanctions, neither of which will last forever. Should those Tariffs and Sanctions be withdrawn, this massive economy of scale should result in massive price advantages, something that China enjoys now on their home turf, and the Chinese government has actively promoted and funded their domestic EV effort, leading to 97% of China’s residents preferring electric cars over ICE vehicles.

Finally, domestically, Chinese EV makers are overwhelming foreign EV sales largely because they provide better values, which should eventually lock most non-China EV vendors and all ICE vendors out of their market. 

Broader Impact

Through this, China is becoming the leading expert in EV-related technologies like EV Battery manufacturing and electric car development, which should also help other Chinese transportation industries benefit from similar technologies. Much like the US did to Europe, China is increasingly positioned to dominate advanced electric transportation technology this century. And, unless something is done to make European and American car companies more competitive, this will be yet another path assuring China’s future dominance in electronics with the increasing potential to pass the US in a relatively short number of years. 

Wrapping Up:

China’s government-supported move to EVs has been far more successful than similar moves by the US and Europe. While there are smaller companies like Norway moving faster, if China continues to out-execute the world, they will gain a level of competency on new Tech that could allow them to take the technology dominance that the US enjoys, replacing that country with their own at the top of the Tech market.  

Most non-China car companies will likely fail by 2035 if something isn't done. 

Rob Enderle is a technology analyst at Torque News who covers automotive technology and battery development. You can learn more about Rob on Wikipedia and follow his articles on Forbes, X, and LinkedIn.