EV Deliveries Plateau In U.S. Market - Barely Any Growth Over 24 Months, With Affordable Options Declining

After steady market share growth in the U.S., battery-electric vehicle market share has stalled at about 8.1% of the total market over the past 24 months. Here’s a closer look at what is going on with EV deliveries in the American market. But first, let us tell you that our information source is Cox/KBB*, and these are its battery-electric vehicle market share numbers for the past four years:

• 2021 = 3.2%
• 2022 = 5.8%
• 2023 = 7.6%
• 2024 = 8.1%

Using data supplied by Cox Automotive, we examined the battery-electric vehicle market share results from the past four years. Cox has generously allowed us an early look at their year-end 2024 data which will be published in a Market Insights report early this coming week. The running 24-month average has barely budged. 92% of American shoppers do not choose a battery-only vehicle when they buy new. Even in California, a supermajority majority of new vehicle shoppers opt for a conventional or hybrid vehicle. 

The month-to-month and quarter-quarter EV market share variation is up and down a couple of percentage points, with quarter-end and year-end low-interest finance deals, cash on the dash, and insane lease incentives helping to buoy EV sales and keep them from plunging off a cliff. Deliveries were particularly strong this past quarter as EV automakers like Tesla pulled out all the stops to move inventory ahead of a new year with the threat of the federal EV tax credit going bye-bye. 

The worst part of the year-end EV data is that affordable EVs, those with a consumer cost if purchased of $35K and lower, have dropped dramatically in deliveries, and available consumer options have also become more limited. You can read a full, up-to-date breakdown of what’s left of the affordable end of the American EV market here. 

EV advocacy publications and those who see glasses as half full by default are reporting “record EV deliveries.” They are not factually wrong. The overall market’s total vehicle sales rose a smidge in 2024, so the overall EV deliveries also rose by a smidge in 2024. Cox's final estimate is 89,000 total EV deliveries added in 2024 overall, with affordable EV deliveries dropping by around 50,000 units.

It’s Mostly The Bolt and Two Tesla Models That Caused The Stagnation
Tesla’s U.S. deliveries are about half of all the EV deliveries in the American market, so the American EV market goes up or down mostly based on what is happening with its two successful models. During 2024, Tesla’s U.S. deliveries of Model Y and Model 3 are estimated to have dropped by about 5%. Tesla does not reveal its U.S. model deliveries or individual model deliveries. It simply reports global deliveries of the Models 3 and Y combined, and separately bunches up the four loser models, Cybertruck, X, S, and Semi, that account for a tiny fraction of the company’s business. It calls the four model undeserving of being mentioned in the Tesla delivery reports “Other.” Groups such as Cox/KBB estimate Tesla’s U.S. deliveries by looking closely at DMV registration data. 

Another significant drop in deliveries was caused when GM discontinued building the hugely popular Bolt/Bolt EUV line in December of 2023. Pre-built inventory trickled a bit of new bolt stock into the market over 2024, but the drop reported by GM was significant. 53,418 fewer Bolts were delivered in 2024 than in 2023, and GM’s new for 2024, much higher-priced Equinox EV only added back 28,874 units. Nearly all of those were fancy trims priced above $43K.

Why Scale Is Important To Keep In Perspective
In the U.S. market, only two EV models have ever maintained a delivery rate of more than 5,000 units per month. Why is it important to mention this in a story about deliveries? Because automakers routinely retire or replace models that sell at a pace lower than 5,000 units per month. Here’s an example. Toyota just discontinued its Toyota Venza (Hybrid). Toyota sold 32,000 of them in 2024, up 7% over 2023, but the model was an outlier, similar to the Lexus NX Hybrid and RAV4 Hybrid. There really is no point for a big automaker to spend the money needed to support a model with such a low delivery volume. The truth is, every U.S. battery-electric vehicle model is a “failure” in the context of its delivery rate except two, the Tesla Model Y and Tesla Model 3. These two combined contribute roughly 600,000 units annually to the American EV market total. (Like I said earlier, about half). What America really has is two successful EVs, and a long list of very nice EVs that are, economically speaking, failures. That’s OK, because we have to start somewhere, right? Yes, except that the modern age of EVs started in 1996, 28 years ago. Only one brand has had two successful EV models in over a quarter century of trying. 

The Argument That EVs Will Grow Market Share in 2025
The argument for EVs adding market share in 2025 goes something like this: Almost every major brand is adding new EV models on a regular basis. So, in 2025, the existing EVs will all sell just like they did in 2024, or maybe even better, and the new ones will add volume. We hope this proves true.

The Argument That EVS Will Lose Market Share In 2025
There is another way to see the U.S. EV market that isn’t so rosy. Here’s how that goes. Automakers will see that consumer demand for EVs has stagnated. They will do things that Ford, VW, and Tesla have already done, such as pause production to keep the inventory low and try to match a demand that is in decline. Automakers may also slow-roll the production of their electric vehicles. Tesla, Ford, Chevy, and GMC are already doing this with EV pickup trucks. Anyone who doesn't see that EV pickup trucks have failed in the U.S. market cannot read a delivery report. Pair this with the possibility that the 119th Congress will change U.S. tax law to reduce or eliminate the taxpayer-funded corporate welfare supporting EVs, plus the executive branch going to the mats to fight California’s de facto control over the entire U.S.’s emissions regulations, and automakers may well pause their efforts on EVs to the point that deliveries suffer significantly. 

The graph at the top of our page is full-scale. It shows EV market share with the Y axis scaled from 0% to 100%. You can be the judge if it looks like EVs took off over the past two years or if they stagnated despite historically unique price supports.

Tell us your prediction for EV market share in the U.S. market for 2025 in our comments section below. Will EV market share grow, stay the same as the past two years, or shrink?

John Goreham is a credentialed New England Motor Press Association member and expert vehicle tester. John completed an engineering program with a focus on electric vehicles, followed by two decades of work in high-tech, biopharma, and the automotive supply chain before becoming a news contributor. He is a member of the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE int). In addition to his eleven years of work at Torque News, John has published thousands of articles and reviews at American news outlets. He is known for offering unfiltered opinions on vehicle topics. You can connect with John on Linkedin and follow his work on his personal X channel or on our X channel. Please note that stories carrying John's by-line are never AI-generated, but he does employ Grammarly grammar and punctuation software when proofreading. 

Chart of EV deliveries by John Goreham. Data courtesy of Cox Automotive.