U.S. EV Market Share Drops Below 8% and Below the 2023 & 2024 Average, but the Most Interesting News Is That It's Not Just Tesla Dropping - Will This Be the Last Quarter For EVs Before a Steep Slide?

Cox Automotive has just released its Q1 EV Delivery data summary and the news for EVs could have been much worse. The team at Cox Automotive provides outstanding data on which we have relied for many years. This new report estimates that battery-electric vehicles managed to earn 7.5% overall market share among all vehicle powertrain types in Q1 in the United States. This news can be interpreted in a number of ways, but here are some facts to examine first:

• The 2023 Full-Year Market Share of EVs was 7.8%
• The 2024 Full-Year Market Share of EVs was 8.1%
• The Second half of 2024 (Q3+Q4) EV market share was 8.7%
• The EV Market Share in Q1 of 2024 was 7.0%
• The EV Market Share in Q1 of 2023 was 7.2%

From this short list of facts, we can see that EV market share in America has been basically flat over the past 27 months. If you are an EV advocate, we presume you will see the 0.5% uptick from Q1 2024 to Q1 of 2025 as “growth” or good news.

By contrast, a person who does not have a pro-EV bias may look at this as a downturn, since the 7.5% of Q1 2025 is meaningfully lower than the six-month prior average market share of 8.7%.

What's our take? EV market share is virtually unchanged since Q1 of 2023, at which point the Cox Automotive estimate was 7.2%. That's 27 months of virtually no growth. 

What Happened To Tesla  In Q1 2025?
What’s most concerning of all is what happened to Tesla. Tesla deliveries have dropped a LOT. A meaningful portion of the Tesla customer base has decided that Elon Musk is a terrible person, and they no longer want to be associated with him. Also, a meaningful portion of the Tesla customer base has decided that they don’t want to buy a new Tesla that will be keyed on day one by the members of the first group. This has diminished the customer base two-fold. Making matters worse is that the Cybertruck, like all EV trucks, has now proven to be an abject failure. 

Cox estimates that Tesla’s U.S. deliveries have declined about 9% over the past quarter. While that doesn’t sound too bad, it does when taken in context. You see, since Tesla was half of the total EV deliveries in America, a nine percent drop in Tesla deliveries wiped out the big percentage gains by other automakers in the same period. A small drop for Tesla means that other brands needed massive percent increases, since they each sell 10-times fewer cars or even fewer than that. Despite a 249% increase by Porsche and a 196% increase in EV deliveries by Toyota, the overall EV market share dipped from its six month run rate above 8% to below 8%.

Q2 is now well underway, and Mr. Musk has not given any indication that he intends to suddenly step back from the leadership position of Tesla or of DOGE. Even if he were to do so, it’s pretty unlikely he would also divest from Tesla. Remember, this is the guy that sued to pretend he was a "founder" of Tesla, despite the company being incorporated by two men, neither of which was him. We suspect that even if he did step away from the spotlight, there may be an aftertaste many former Tesla supporters may not like. This means that the other brands will have to carry the torch for now, and it is not shining as brightly as it once was.

You’re Not Going to Like This Part
We hate to add this in, but it’s our job. It wasn't just Tesla that had a bad quarter. Rivian also saw declines. As did Mercedes Benz. And Lexus. And MINI. And Kia, which makes no sense since Kia’s EVs are fantastic. So, let’s not pretend this is “just an Elon Musk issue.”
 

If the EV Tax Credits and ZEV Credits Go Away, So Do EV Delivery Increases
Every EV is built on a financial foundation of ZEV credits and consumer-facing tax incentives. If these two go away, we suspect the EV market in America would collapse entirely. However, despite the paranoia and poor reading of the constitutional powers section of the U.S. owners’ manual (Constitution) by many leading EV publications, we’ve not heard a lot from the 119th Congress on this matter. Presidents don’t write tax law for better or for worse. Legislators do. And right now, we are a hare’s breath from parity in Congress. We don’t expect the EV subsidies to be cut entirely overnight, so for the current quarter and possibly beyond, don’t expect EV deliveries to drop by more than another couple of percentage points. Unless…

Tariffs and EV Deliveries
Unless new tariffs on imported parts like batteries and electronics torpedo the economics of EVs. Unlike tax law, tariffs in 2025 are squarely in the President’s wheelhouse. Couple up steel and aluminum tariffs with some on vital EV parts, and we can bid farewell to EVs in America. Many EVs are made outside of the United States. Here’s a trio you may have heard of:

1. Dodge Charger R/T Daytona - Ontario, Canada
2. Ford Mustang Mach-E - Cuautitlán Izcalli, Mexico
3. Chevrolet Equinox EV - GM’s Ramos Arizpe plant in Coahuila, Mexico

Dodge, Ford, and Chevrolet. As American as baseball, Mom, and apple pie, right? Only if you are talking continents, not countries, it turns out. 

Should the trade between Mexico and the U.S., and Canada and the U.S. end up being subject to a double-digit tariffs, you can say adios and au revoir to these three EVs. 

Conclusion - EV Growth Is Over For the U.S. For the Foreseeable Future
We won’t count out EVs entirely just yet, but the days of the “hockey stick” growth that so many EV fans swore was "just around the corner!" are now on hold until further notice. 

Will EV deliveries stay at around 7.5% in Q2 or decline?

What’s your prediction for the full-year market share for EVs in America in 2025? Tell us in the comments section below. 
 

John Goreham is a credentialed New England Motor Press Association member and expert vehicle tester. John completed an engineering program with a focus on electric vehicles, followed by two decades of work in high-tech, biopharma, and the automotive supply chain before becoming a news contributor. He is a member of the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE int). In addition to his eleven years of work at Torque News, John has published thousands of articles and reviews at American news outlets. He is known for offering unfiltered opinions on vehicle topics. You can connect with John on Linkedin and follow his work on his personal X channel or on our X channel. Please note that stories carrying John's by-line are never AI-generated, but he does employ grammar and punctuation software when proofreading and he also uses image generation tools.