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Range of the Model Y: Historically
The Model Y is Tesla's top-selling vehicle, with a plethora of amazing features and space. How much range will this vehicle have in the future?
To understand this, let's look at the historical ranges for this vehicle. We have the years 2020 to early 2023 as a reference.
2020 Model Y Ranges:
* Long Range: 316 miles
* Performance: 315 miles
2021 Model Y Ranges:
* Long Range: 326 miles
* Performance: 303 miles
2022 Model Y Ranges:
* Long Range: 330 miles
* Performance: 303 miles
2023 Model Y Ranges:
Currently, the same as 2022.
Source: caranddriver.com
It looks like the performance Model Y actually lost a little bit of range. The long range has gone from 316 to 330 miles of range in 3 years. That is a 4.3% increase in range over 3 years, or a 1.43% in range every year. This gives us a rough idea of what the end of 2023 through 2033 will look like:
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Future Range of the Model Y
We will start with the year 2023 and assume a 1.43% increase in range by the end of this year. We will also focus on just the Model Y long range. That puts the following for year and estimated range:
2023: 335
2024: 340
2025: 344
2026: 349
2027: 354
2028: 359
2029: 364
2030: 370
2031: 375
2032: 380
As you can see, there is an increase in range, but it isn't a massive change in range. Tesla is not focusing on increasing the range, but is instead focusing on improving the vehicle and reducing the cost to produce it.
There could be some battery development that greatly alters range, but the battery chemistry would have to be very reliable and have a cycle length that is equal to the current battery chemistries available.
A 380-mile range Model Y in 10 years doesn't seem like that much of an improvement, but, if the cost of the car has come down significantly to, say, $35,000, then that's a big improvement from where we are today.
Tesla vehicles and any EV that uses batteries and software is now like a phone or computer that is updated regularly. A Model Y in 10 years will probably be vastly improved over the Model Y vehicles today and cost less.
Do you think this will be the range of the Model Y over time? If not, what do you think it will be?
In Related News: Elon Musk Gives Nod to Model 3 - Project Highland
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.
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Comments
Tesla absolutely should
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Tesla absolutely should increase range. All these numbers posted are not realistic. Want to run your car at night? Guess what now your headlights are burning the battery. Turn on your air conditioning. The battery goes faster. Want to go over 70? We all do! Now your battery goes even faster. The biggest complaint I have in my model Y performance is the fact the battery drains way too fast. Therefore give me a bigger battery or more energy density for the pack I have. Teslas are fine for around the town cars but God forbid you actually want to take a trip. They’re just not there yet. Nobody seems to report that your 300 mile car is only really good for 250. Sure at 250 you’re gonna want to use the bathroom but what if I don’t have to? Why can’t I just keep driving. Well you can’t because your battery dies. I love my car but it needs a lot longer range. I also only was able to charge my car to 300 miles twice and then the range dropped considerably. Right now my max range is 270 which is really only good for 230 to 240 miles. If that.