There Is Plentiful US Demand For Plug-In Vehicles In 2024

The two biggest drags on EV (and plug-in hybrid (PHEV)) sales are: how much they cost and auto dealers and other vested interests. Things like interest rates, the price of gas, how informed consumers are, and charging infrastructure are all related to these factors and are far more influential at this stage of our transition to electrified vehicles than what recent polls reflect about the percent of car buyers who say they are unlikely to buy a plug-in as their next vehicle (more than half say they won’t). That isn’t to say that everyone wants an EV, at least not yet (and likely not for a good while still), or that everyone even should have one. By that last part I just mean as a nation we really should be investing a lot more money and effort into establishing truly robust, all electric public transportation. It also isn’t to say that EV sales are going to grow this year like they have in years past, either. But there are lots of customers out there still enthusiastically looking for their first EV, or PHEV, this year and in the years to come, because at less than 10% of total sales last year, plug-in vehicles still have at least enough runway to triple, if those same recent polls are accurate. I am not going to get too deep into trying to predict what I think plug-in sales might look like for 2024, and just say I think that it is entirely reasonable to think that there will be at least a modest increase in sales this year, if not a robust double digit increase.

How do I know this is likely to be the case? Is it because everywhere I look I see people, new to plug-in vehicle ownership, enthusiastically purchasing their first plug-in vehicles? In part, yes. In the last 4 years, just in my small neighborhood of 27 homes (with an average of 1.9 vehicles per house) more than half of all new vehicle purchases have been plug-ins with a total of 8 in that timeframe. None of these neighbors that are buying plug-ins are what you would call “early adopters” or “innovators”; I am one of those and I got my first EV in 2011 (and my first electric bike in 2008)! Every person I know who has bought a car in the last year has purchased their first plug-in vehicle (including three members of my extended family). Of course my singular experience is subjective and doesn’t really matter that much, but my point is this: innovators and early adopters mostly got their plug-in vehicles years ago and while some certainly are now buying their second (or nth) plug-in vehicles, we are years into the early majority stage of customer adoption for plug-in vehicles. Just look at the photo I took of my drive-way today, above; half of those plug-in vehicles were purchased in the last year by members of my family that never owned a plug-in vehicle before or even bought a new car before! Again, my subjective experience isn’t the main thing driving my stance on plug-in vehicles sales. I am looking at sales figures of leading manufacturers and paying more attention to media sources that use less biased language and stick to the facts, like these pieces from Axios and NBC news. They paint a more appropriately nuanced and realistic picture than sources like the Wall Street Journal and other opinion pieces have painted recently where they claim “buyers’ interest in these models is proving shallower than expected” or that “EVs are a fading fad”. Frankly those sentiments are not only wrong, they may be intentionally misleading (you have to consider what’s behind the author’s statements, their vested interests or lack of knowledge). It is up to us to question, and do our own quality research, in the face of intentionally misleading or at least poorly argued/thought out pieces such as these.

Ultimately, all the “hand wringing” and lowering of expectations by manufacturers that we might read about lately, should be evaluated against the fact that other establishment manufacturers like the Hyundai Motor Group are not doing this and “start up” manufacturers like Tesla and Rivian are focused on growing (not shrinking) their production lines as well, even if they might be slightly more cautious about timing of their new construction and bringing new production lines up to full capacity. While we all deal with some uncertainty about how things are going to look this year, economically speaking, the fact is that plug-in vehicles are almost certainly going to capture a greater percent of the US auto market in 2024 than they did in years past. 

Have you made up your mind about plug-in vehicles? How certain are you about whether you might buy one the next time you purchase a vehicle? Please leave your comments and questions below.

Images courtesy of Justin Hart.

Justin Hart has owned and driven electric vehicles for over 15 years, including a first generation Nissan LEAF, second generation Chevy Volt, Tesla Model 3, an electric bicycle and most recently a Kia Sorento PHEV. He is also an avid SUP rider, poet, photographer and wine lover. He enjoys taking long EV and PHEV road trips to beautiful and serene places with the people he loves. Follow Justin on Torque News Kia or X for regular electric and hybrid news coverage.