Peter Rawlinson, Lucid CEO, Is Dead Wrong About Tesla FSD

Peter Rawlinson seems to think that Tesla won't have its FSD (full self-driving) technology figured out until in the 2030s, or around a decade from now. This is just plain false - and dead wrong. Here's why Tesla is well on its way to achieving FSD by 2026 - in just a couple of years:

1. Rapid Iterative Development

Tesla's approach to FSD is fundamentally different from traditional automotive development cycles. With over-the-air updates, Tesla can deploy improvements and new features almost instantaneously to its entire fleet.

This capability allows for an exponential growth in system learning and refinement. Since 2024, Tesla has been releasing versions like 12.4, 12.5, and planning for v13, each bringing significant enhancements, moving closer to unsupervised FSD with each update.

2. The Dojo and AI Advantage

Tesla's Dojo supercomputer, operational since July 2023, marks a pivotal shift in how quickly Tesla can train its neural networks. By processing vast amounts of real-world driving data, Dojo allows Tesla to improve its FSD algorithms at an unprecedented pace.

This in-house technology reduces dependency on external compute power, providing Tesla a unique edge in machine learning model training, crucial for FSD development.

In addition to that, Tesla is buying up an enormous amount of NVIDIA GPU's to make up the difference that Dojo can't fill.

3. End-to-End Neural Networks

The introduction of end-to-end neural networks for decision-making, particularly with the rollout for highways in late 2024, signifies a leap towards less human-intervention-required driving.

This shift from hard-coded logic to AI-driven decision-making mimics how humans learn to drive, promising a more intuitive and adaptable driving system.

Elon Musk Overdelivers At 10/10 Autonomy Event: Cybercab, Robovan, Optimus, and 50 Autonomous Vehicles In A Futuristic Cityhttps://t.co/xf1uyep5i0$TSLA @Tesla @torquenewsauto #evs #optimus #robots #fleetoperator #cybercab #robovan #fsd #supervisedfsd #unsupervisedfsd
— Jeremy Noel Johnson (@AGuyOnlineHere) October 11, 2024

4. Metrics and Milestones

Analysts and Tesla itself have highlighted the metric of 'miles between critical interventions' as key to evaluating FSD progress.

Achieving a six-fold improvement, as projected with upcoming updates, would align with Elon Musk's timelines for achieving high-level autonomy in key markets. This metric not only showcases improvement but also builds consumer confidence in FSD technology.

5. Real-World Data Collection

Tesla's fleet provides real-world driving data that no other company can match in scale. Every Tesla on the road acts as a data collector, feeding back into the system to improve FSD.

This continuous feedback loop accelerates learning and problem-solving in diverse driving scenarios.

What other company has 7 million cars on the road gathering data and feeding it to an AI training cluster to improve full self-driving?

6. Regulatory and Market Expansion

Tesla's roadmap includes expanding FSD internationally by early 2025, starting with Europe and China.

This ambition indicates confidence in their technology's maturity, as regulatory approval in these markets would require demonstrating high reliability and safety standards.

Why Rawlinson's View Is Misguided

Peter Rawlinson's skepticism might stem from a more traditional automotive perspective, where progress is slow and reliant on physical hardware upgrades.

However, Tesla's software-centric approach, combined with its capacity for rapid hardware-software integration, breaks this mold.

Moreover, Rawlinson's viewpoint might be influenced by competitive positioning, as acknowledging Tesla's likely success could be seen as admitting a competitive disadvantage.

Tesla stated today on its Q3 2024 earnings call that Tesla FSD will be safer than humans around Q2 or Q3 of 2025. Less than a year away.

Final Thoughts

Tesla's strategic moves, from leveraging Dojo for quicker AI training, adopting end-to-end neural networks, to setting clear, aggressive milestones for FSD updates, underscore a roadmap poised for success by 2026.

While challenges remain, particularly in regulatory approval and perfecting the technology for all scenarios, Tesla's approach has consistently been to tackle these head-on with innovation and iteration.

The notion that FSD might be a 2030s problem for Tesla underestimates the transformative power of their current trajectory and technological ecosystem.

Is Peter Rawlinson wrong about Tesla FSD? Is he just trying to get attention?

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Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.

Image Credit: Tesla, Screenshot

Article Reference: Tesla