Tesla Is Going To Get The Cost Of The Cybercab Down To A Staggering $15,000

The Path to a $15,000 Cybercab Robotaxi: Tesla's Strategic Cost Reduction

Tesla is going to get the Cybercab cost down to $15,000. Here's what a breakdown of that will look like at the point mass production of millions per year is reached in 2026.

• D&A expense/unit: $100
• Structural 4680-50KwH pack: $3,000
• Camera: $100
• Hardware 4 computer: $500
• Casted front/rear: $500
• Tires/rims: $800
• Suspension: $1,000
• Wiring harness: $500
• Seats: $1,000
• Screen/infotainment/speakers: $500
• Drive unit: $1,000
• Windows/glass: $1,000
• Heat pump: $150
• Brakes: $500
• Interior misc. items & trim: $1,000
• Labor: $200
• Paint: $500
• Airbags/seatbelts: $1,000
• Stamped panels: $500
• Headlights/tail-lights: $1,000

Total: $14,850

Tesla's ambition to produce a robotaxi service, potentially named "Cybercab" after the styling cues from the Cybertruck, involves significant innovation not just in autonomous driving technology but also in vehicle manufacturing.

The goal of reaching a production cost of $15,000 per unit for such a vehicle might seem ambitious, but it aligns with Tesla's history of disrupting conventional automotive economics through vertical integration, design-for-manufacture, and technological breakthroughs. Here's how Tesla might achieve this cost through various strategies illustrated in the image you've shared:

Design and Simplicity Chassis and Body Design:

• Unibody Construction: Moving towards an even more integrated unibody design, Tesla could reduce the number of parts needed for assembly. The Cybercab could utilize a full-exoskeleton made from materials like 30X cold-rolled stainless steel (similar to the Cybertruck), which simplifies the body structure due to its strength and the ability to form complex shapes without multiple panels.
• Reduced Complexity: By incorporating fewer components, especially in areas like the suspension and steering, Tesla can cut down on costs. For instance, using steer-by-wire instead of traditional steering systems could eliminate mechanical parts.
• Interior Minimalism With Shared Mobility Focus: Since the Cybercab is designed for robotaxi services, its interior might be minimalist, removing the need for steering wheels, pedals, or traditional seating arrangements. This reduces the material and labor costs associated with upholstery, airbags tailored for human-driven vehicles, and HVAC systems.

Manufacturing Innovations and Gigacasting:

• Large Single Castings: Tesla's innovation with gigacasting allows for large sections of the vehicle (like the underbody) to be cast as one piece. This not only reduces the number of parts, but also the welding and assembly time, leading to significant cost reductions.
• In-House Battery Production:
• Battery Cost Reduction: By producing its own batteries and advancing battery technology (like the 4680 cells), Tesla aims to slash battery costs. For a robotaxi, optimizing battery size for urban use could further reduce costs.
• Increased Automation: Tesla's plan to increase the use of robotics in production lines can dramatically cut labor costs. A highly automated factory could produce vehicles with minimal human intervention, reducing not only payroll but also error rates and rework.

Mass Production:

• Economies of Scale: Producing vehicles in high volumes allows Tesla to negotiate better terms with suppliers, utilize bulk purchasing for materials, and spread fixed costs over more units, significantly lowering the per-unit cost.
• Vertical Integration With In-House Components: From chips to seats, Tesla's strategy of making more parts in-house reduces dependency on external suppliers, cuts down on supply chain costs, and gives Tesla control over quality and cost.

Elon Musk Describes Tesla's Daunting Cost Cutting Strategy For Its Vehicles - Squeezing 50 Cents Out Of Each Componenthttps://t.co/IicLuvIDsH$TSLA @Tesla @torquenewsauto #costcutting #savings #evs #manufacturing
— Jeremy Noel Johnson (@AGuyOnlineHere) October 24, 2024

Technology and Software

• Software Over Hardware With Autonomous Driving Software: A significant portion of the vehicle's functionality would be software-driven, which, once developed, has minimal marginal costs. Tesla's investment in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology would be pivotal, as this software could be updated remotely, reducing the need for physical modifications.
• Subscription Models With Revenue Models: Even if the initial hardware cost is high, Tesla could leverage subscription models for autonomous driving features, maintenance, and upgrades, spreading the capital cost over the vehicle's operational life.

Regulatory and Market Factors

• Tax Incentives and Government Support With Policy Benefits: Government incentives for electric and autonomous vehicles could further reduce the effective cost of production or operation, especially if these vehicles are seen as solutions for urban mobility.
• Market Adaptation With Adapting to Demand: By focusing on a vehicle designed specifically for city use, Tesla could optimize for the most common use cases, further cutting down on what isn't necessary for a robotaxi.

The Road To $15,000

Reaching a $15,000 cost per Cybercab involves a multi-faceted approach focusing on design for manufacturability, leveraging economies of scale, advancing in-house production capabilities, and utilizing software to replace expensive hardware solutions.

This cost target would not only make the robotaxi service economically viable at scale, but also potentially disrupt traditional urban transportation models.

Tesla's journey towards this goal would require relentless innovation and optimization, but the payoff could be a transportation revolution, making mobility more accessible and environmentally friendly.

Will Tesla get the cost of the Cybercab down to $15,000?

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Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.

Image Credit: Tesla, Screenshot

Article Reference: Tesla