Tesla Key Man Risk
The Tesla "key man risk" states that Elon Musk is the reason Tesla is doing so well and that if he were to depart the company, Tesla would be at risk to decline in the business and stock price.
I don't believe this is true.
I think the "key man risk" at Tesla is just about gone. Elon Musk is an inspiring visionary leader, yes, but one thing he has done exceptionally well is explained Tesla's vision with Master Plans Part 1, 2, and 3.
Tesla is broken down into 4 businesses. I understand the vision of those 4 businesses pretty well and as such, believe that the executives and employees at Tesla understand it even better.
The Auto/Transport Business
Elon Musk's vision for the auto business is to get to 20 million vehicles delivered per year and to have a vehicle in every major segment. That's a very clear vision and easy to understand. Here are the vehicle segments:
- Original vehicle (Tesla Roadster)
- High-end sedan (Model S)
- High-end SUV (Model X)
- Sedan (Model 3)
- SUV (Model Y)
- Truck (Cybertruck)
- Bus (not yet produced)
- Van (not yet produced)
- Compact (Model 2, coming, Around 2025)
- Sub-Compact (Model 1, Coming Later This Decade, eta 2028 or beyond)
- Robotaxi (not yet produced)
- Planes, ships, and more (not yet produced)
Tesla need only execute on delivering these vehicles at as high as quality as possible. You could also put Tesla Insurance under this business. Tesla employees have this roadmap and I believe by 2030, we'll have most of these vehicles in place.
Planes, ships, and more are a bit of a wildcard and more dependent on advancements in battery technology.
Tesla Unveils Tesla Optimus Bot Generation 2 Doing Squats: 30% Faster Walking, 22 lb. Weight Reduction, and Smooth Movementshttps://t.co/I4HVsPVCaW$TSLA @Tesla @torquenewsauto #teslabot #optimus #optimus2 #squats #yoga #delicatehandling #dancingrobot
— Jeremy Noel Johnson (@AGuyOnlineHere) December 13, 2023
Energy Business
The energy business vision is pretty simple. Flood the earth with stationary energy (PowerWall and MegaPack) and solar (solar roof/panels) so that the earth is covered in abundant energy. The products that do this are:
- PowerWall (small battery storage for homes)
- MegaPack (large battery storage for businesses and utility companies
- Solar Roof/Panels (Solar shingles or panels for the roof)
Tesla need only work hard to reduce the costs of these over time and improve the technologies associated with each. Tesla doesn't need Elon Musk to tell the business that this is important and what to do here. The vision is clear.
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FSD and Software
The software business consists primarily of these products:
- Premium Connectivity (Used for Zoom calls and games)
- Enhanced Autopilot (Used for lane changes and other features like smart summon)
- FSD (full self-driving)
The goal is simple for this business. FSD will be the primary "driver" of driverless cars. The goal is to get every Tesla vehicle autonomous and to be available everywhere on the earth. This means working with regulators and making sure that all obstacles are removed.
It also means keeping data to show how safe FSD is. When we have people using FSD for weeks at a time without any issue and Tesla has heated cameras that clean themselves on all Tesla vehicles, then I'll think we'll see this start to happen.
Elon Musk said something very profound a couple of years ago. He said that driverless cars would be one of the most valuable things, that has ever been done, in the history of civilization.
Tesla Slashing Prices and Offering Customers Incentives In End Of Year Sales Rushhttps://t.co/Dcxjt5Azx0$TSLA @Tesla @torquenewsauto #evs #model3 #modely #sales #2023isalmostover #tesla
— Jeremy Noel Johnson (@AGuyOnlineHere) December 12, 2023
Tesla BOT/AI
This business is the biggest "wildcard" for Tesla because nobody really knows all the use cases for the Optimus Robot. Sure, cleaning, dishes, carrying packages, delivering food, cooking, etc. are obvious, but many other uses won't be obvious, but discovered by customer demands.
Tesla is already improving the Optimus robot at a fast pace, as shown by the latest video released. What is the ultimate goal of the humanoid robot? Do mundane and dangerous tasks so that other humans don't have to do them. It will be interesting to see how many of these can actually be built.
If Elon Musk left Tesla, I think the employees should focus on this single goal: Build a humanoid robot that can work 24 hours a day and do the same job as a human, but better, in most cases, and offer it for $20,000 or less - or do a subscription plan. Then, build as many as humanly possible - even if that means building a billion of them or more.
Elon Musk is exceptionally valuable to Tesla. He has done a great job at sharing the vision for Tesla, so much, that his vision transcends him. He provides inspiration and leadership to Tesla, no doubt. However, I would not be worried at all if he left Tesla for any reason.
In Other Tesla News: Do you need to be rich to afford a Tesla? Not Exactly - Model 3 RWD With Incentives Priced At Ridiculous $22,590
What do you think about Elon Musk no longer being a key man risk at Tesla? Do you believe this is true?
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Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.