Nissan Can Avert LEAF Pending Crisis If It Makes This Single Change

The problem is not the armchair economics it's the engineering. Right now Nissan can fit only up to 30 kwh of battery in the spot the current 24.5 kwh battery fits and that isn't even available yet. Where would an "add on" battery go? My trunk? 200 miles would require a 55-60kwh battery. The new Leaf will have around that capacity but i guarantee you it'll require a differently shaped and larger area to hold that battery despite the increases in energy density. The current 24.5 kwh batt is huge and the current cars framing is built only for that shape of a battery. I think more homework is needed here

There have been increases in battery density so making an old LEAF go further is certainly doable. Will it possible to attain the full extra range of a brand new LEAF? Probably not, however also expect Nissan to offer LEAF's with different battery capacities, so they could easily package a battery that will fit both the old and new cars with less range than the top end new LEAF, but still be better than the original. But that's not the point.

The problem with putting $5000 of batteries into old cars instead of discounting residual values is all about cashflow. If Nissan can convince a lessee to buy a car at a discounted price, they get paid money. If they instead install batteries in old LEAF's, they pay out money, not receive money.

The $5000 discount is Nissan accepting they would get $5000 less than the residual market value if they took the car back from the owner, the money has already been lost. You can't spend what you have already lost, its already too late.

How would this proposed upgrade to 2011 LEAFs affect sales of 2016 LEAFs?

@Adarondax The way I see it an upgrade to an older model car will increase the desirability of the LEAF model new and old. The EV market is expanding, so they would not necessarily sacrifice future sales by offering upgrades. The opposite could be true as owners of older LEAF's brag about how their cars are NOT being made obsolete by new technology but benefiting from the new technology.

Nissan currently sell replacement batteries for about $5,500. If they offered an larger capacity battery for about the same price many old LEAF owners would do this since its an 'upgrade'.

Tesla are about to sell Roadster upgrade batteries boosting range to about 400 miles. This sends strong message to Model S owners in that Tesla will probably offer them an upgrade in 5 years as well.

Forget 200 miles, just upgrade me to 120 miles and I'll be super happy. After 46K miles, my range has dropped to about 50 on the slow lanes of the freeway.

When I put my $99 deposit down a year before the Leaf was first introduced, I had time to ponder all these things. Resale value was the biggest unknown because it could theoretically be $0 at the time of battery replacement. But the replacement cost for the battery turned out to be very reasonable. I have lost 3 bars at 4 years and 41K miles, but still have adequate range for my daily needs. I would expect to replace the battery in about 3~4 more years are current rate of degradation and expect by that time a next-generation technology will be available for replacements. Also, the cars seems to living up to theoretical maintenance expectations, which is basically they don't need much. I've replaced tires and wiper blades and is otherwise as new.

This "Crisis" is Nissan's own fault. If you remember the lease price on this car was almost $400 when it was first introduced. Over the years Nissan cut that price in half to drive sales and this dropped the resale value of the cars coming off lease. Lower sale prices and lower resale prices means way lower margin on the car line. Don't know if they can recover any of the cash by selling ZEV credits in California.

There is no way that Nissan can shoehorn a 200 mile battery into the existing Leaf. If they wanted to convert some leases into sales they would get a bit more creative. Instead of just offering a reduction in residual, they could offer a discount on a batter replacement. $6,000 it a steep cost for an used car. If they were to offer a $3,000 coupon for replacing with the updated 100 mile battery I bet that they would convert many leases into sales. This would also have the benefit of not hitting Nissan's bottom line immediately. Please will likely delay cashing in the coupon for as long as possible which would mean that Nissan would be incurring increasingly lower costs. It would also send a strong signal to the market that these cars can be upgraded beyond their initial specs over time.

Someone mentioned that upgrading existing vehicles would hurt sales of the 2016 Leafs. I think that with a bump in range Nissan will open up the market considerably more than the impact of loss repeat buyers.

I doubt it would be as easy as dropping in a new battery even if it did fit. New software would be required too.

Problem with upgrading older Leafs range by increasing battery pack size weight is not so simple. If the pack would fit in the same tray and weight the same, not such a big deal but as soon as Nissan adds weight or size to the battery system then the vehicles safety test and crash tests become suspect. I'm no expert by any means on such matters but I'd think these kind of changes would require new testing and I'd think that may be cost prohibitive.