My 2023 Ford F-150's Lease Purchase Option Is $47K, but the Truck’s Trade-In Value Is $39K And It Absolutely Blows My Mind

The Ford F-150 has long been America’s favorite truck, but not every ownership experience comes with a happy ending. For one Torque News reader, Jay Silva, leasing a 2023 Ford F-150 Powerboost XLT turned into a financial disaster that left him questioning how things went so wrong. Jay’s story highlights an issue that many truck owners are facing in today’s volatile automotive market—negative equity that seems almost impossible to escape.

“So check this out,” Jay wrote under one of our recent articles, titled "My Ford F-150 Has Lost So Much Value, $20K In Negative Equity Since Ford Decided to Tank the Brand Due to Reliability and Cutting Corners." “I worked for a Ford dealership when I leased my 2023 Ford F-150 Powerboost XLT. The truck is as loaded as an XLT and comes with a $70k MSRP. With D Plan (employee pricing), I leased the truck for just about $63k. I’m almost 2 years into my 3-year lease, and the truck has absolutely TANKED in value. The truck has 12,500 miles on it and has a trade-in value of about $39k. My lease purchase option is $47k. I’ll let you guess who’s going to be turning in the keys and walking away from this disaster, smh. I’m sort of upset though… Like, how does someone become so flipped upside down on a lease like this? I have been in the car business for 12 years and have never seen so much negative equity on a lease. Absolutely blows my mind. It’s a great truck, and I’d love to keep it for the long haul, but no way in hell I’d take it on the chin with that residual value vs. live market value. No thanks.”

Jay’s frustration is palpable, and his story raises a critical question: How does a well-respected truck like the F-150 Powerboost, with its impressive hybrid technology and workhorse capabilities, end up losing so much value in such a short period of time?

The Perfect Storm of Negative Equity

Jay's story isn’t the only one highlighting the growing issue of negative equity in Ford trucks. Another F-150 owner recently shared how he ended up $20K underwater on his truck, blaming Ford for tanking the brand’s value.

The answer lies in a mix of economic factors, market shifts, and lease structuring. Over the past few years, the automotive market has experienced wild swings in vehicle values. Pandemic-induced supply chain issues led to inflated MSRPs, with buyers and lessees paying top dollar for vehicles. However, as production rebounded and the used car market normalized, many vehicles—especially trucks—saw significant drops in resale value.

In Jay’s case, his Powerboost’s $70,000 MSRP was already on the high end for a half-ton truck, even with the employee discount. Lease residuals, which are often calculated optimistically by manufacturers, assumed the truck would retain more value than the market could support. Combine that with today’s rising interest rates, and many lessees are finding themselves in a situation where their buyout price far exceeds the actual trade-in value of their vehicle.

Why This Matters to Truck Owners

Jay’s situation isn’t unique. Across the country, owners of high-MSRP trucks and SUVs are grappling with unprecedented negative equity on both leases and financed vehicles. For those considering a lease, it’s a cautionary tale: always evaluate the residual value against the live market trends before signing on the dotted line. A high residual value might lower your monthly payments, but it could leave you with a financial headache if market values plummet.

This also sparks a larger conversation about whether automakers and dealerships are doing enough to educate customers about the risks of leasing in volatile markets. Should lease contracts include more realistic residual value projections, even if it means slightly higher monthly payments?

What Can You Do to Avoid Jay’s Situation?

If you’re considering leasing a truck, here are three tips to avoid falling into a negative equity trap:

1. Research Market Trends: Understand how the model you’re leasing is performing in the used car market. Trucks that historically hold value well are safer bets.
2. Negotiate Aggressively: Employee pricing is great, but try to stack additional incentives or rebates. Every dollar saved on the front end helps mitigate future losses. If you find yourself in a similar situation to Jay's, there are strategies to get out of a car lease without losing your shirt. Discover how to navigate your lease exit without taking a financial hit.
3. Plan for Flexibility: Be prepared to walk away at the end of the lease if the residual value doesn’t align with market conditions, just as Jay plans to do.

While Jay’s story focuses on traditional trucks, leasing can be a smarter option for certain vehicle segments—especially electric vehicles. If you're considering going electric, check out these five reasons why leasing a new EV might make more sense than buying outright.

What’s Your Take?

Have you experienced a similar situation with a lease or vehicle purchase? Are you finding that trucks like the F-150 are losing their value faster than expected? Let us know in the comments—we’d love to hear your story.

The Moral of the Story

Jay’s experience serves as a reminder that even industry insiders can fall victim to the complexities of today’s automotive market. The lesson here? Always approach a lease or purchase with your eyes wide open. In a world where market conditions can change in the blink of an eye, staying informed and flexible is your best defense against financial surprises.

As Jay put it, “No way in hell I’d take it on the chin.” And maybe, neither should you.

Armen Hareyan is the founder and the Editor in Chief of Torque News. He founded TorqueNews.com in 2010, which since then has been publishing expert news and analysis about the automotive industry. He can be reached at Torque News Twitter, Facebook, Linkedin, and Youtube. He has more than a decade of expertise in the automotive industry with a special interest in Tesla and electric vehicles.