Tesla FSD is Already Done and Nobody Can See It

After AI day Tesla brought on board many AI resources. Musk was particular in wanting people with real world experience of making AI do what is needed rather than book learning. People who could break down the glass ceiling and move forward.

Andrej Karpathy was at the helm every time they had a false dawn. Perhaps one of the new hires convinced Musk to take a different approach. Perhaps Karpathy didn't want to go there? Perhaps the new approach proved out which is why updates stopped for so long and when it did update some of the previous finish was lost and some of the "nice to have" features had been lost.

Musk would have been tense and short every time they kept hitting the ceiling. If he was convinced that they now are moving in the right direction and that all the prior barriers have been removed, then he could be more relaxed without FSD being "done".

Some of the pressure has gone with constant profits. Not only constant profits but ever growing profits where scaling increases margin and increases profits.

If you read Launched, you realise that Musk put his entire net worth and life gains to date into Tesla and SpaceX and he must have been under incredible stress for decades to see that his entire life's work was not lost.

There is no real danger to Tesla now. Tesla would have to make an incredible mistake to be at risk now as the existing auto business are still trying to compete for the scraps left by Tesla. As for SpaceX, they are rapidly eating up the entire space launch business for the world and that is without Starship.

He has a lot to be relaxed about. He even felt relaxed enough to call the SEC both liars and "bastards". That's not the move of someone who feels threatened. Twitter I see as "revenge" on the SEC served very cold indeed. First he gets control of Twitter and ensures that what he says is faithfully reported then he removes a key pivotal technology, in the future transition of the world to a technical world, from the oversight of the SEC.

I'm not sure that Twitter will be his last "take private" move which removes key structure from the oversight of the SEC. I also can't see Musk stopping provoking them either.

This is a different Musk. Released from two decades of worry and concern and with the financial means to do what he thinks needs to be done.

I'm not surprised he's more relaxed.

FSD is VERY far from being done. It is dangerous to drive with it on. It doesn't recognize speed limits on black on yellow signs. It interprets minimum speed signs as speed limit signs. It freezes on unprotected left hand turns leaving car in middle of intersection. Even if driving exactly at the posted speed limit, it has a very hard time staying on its lane on curvy roads. This is especially dangerous since it positions the car closer to the middle line than most people drive and there is less margin for error. It doesn't recognize my HOA's steel gate and would crash into it everytime that I try to enter.
In my area, you have to react very quickly to these errors or there would be a crash! I have 2020 MY LR AWD with latest updates.

It is hard to explain when some of the concepts are very specific and tightly focused.

When Musk talks about "feature complete" he is not saying "the car can drive in every circumstance", he is saying that the car has all the abilities to drive the vehicle, not that it is fully trained to do so.

When Google designed their game playing AI, it took them 3 years to code it. In those 3 years they generated 3 years worth of training data. When the AI was feature complete, they fed in the training data. It took 3 days to train it to be better than a human.

In the field of self driving AI, the training data is the digital data the vehicle generates from the cameras. That data is being assembled by hand right now. People tagging specific events so the labelling team can generate the training data for the AI.

This is like a 2 year old feeding training data to a chess grand master.

When Dojo comes online it will do the labelling of All the video automatically. It will then re-submit the existing data, correctly labelled, to the AI.

Once that is done the AI will be trained in days. Then it will be a matter of fine tuning it.

If you go back and look at your complaints above, ask yourself. Can the vehicle actually drive on the roads? Yes but it is not very good at it. Can it do unprotected left turns? Yes but it is not very good at it. Can it come when summoned? ditto, ditto just about every other driving action, reading signs, reacting to signs, lights, scenario's etc.

There is another scenario where that plays out. It's called a human student/learner driver.

Musk and team thought AI driving was easy with the right team. Based on the efforts of other companies doing their own work, Waymo, Uber, etc. It took time for them to realise that these companies were not doing real world AI driving, they were just creating something "just" good enough to get by.

Tesla wanted to replace the human in all scenario's. Did they get the time wrong? Sure. Did they give up? No.

Anyone who bought FSD and didn't read the bit at the end which states that even when it is absolutely complete, it still can't be used without regulatory approval, who is complaining about "delivery times"; didn't think it thought.

“Progress disappoints in the short run, surprises in the long run.”

Jim Keller
Tesla Autopilot Chip Designer