Tesla Flat - Until It's Not
I saw a post recently, someone saying that Tesla will deliver 2.8 million vehicles in 2026. It was a very pessimistic post. Nothing wrong with pessimism - in small doses.
However, Tesla is not a pessimistic company - they are a company that is going after the future - and making the future look like the future. I do agree that we've got a couple slow years ahead of us for those that are investors in Tesla.
For 2026 to be at 2.8 million vehicles, this is after a likely around 2.1 to 2.2 million deliveries this year, in 2024.
I think that Tesla gets to 2.5 to 2.6 million vehicles delivered in 2025.
EV Battery Costs - Dropping Faster Than Predicted Even By Tony Sebahttps://t.co/tMLV91eHaL$TSLA @Tesla @torquenewsauto @tonyseba #evs #batteries #energy #energystorage #powerwall #megapack #tesla #kwh
— Jeremy Noel Johnson (@AGuyOnlineHere) January 20, 2024
In 2026, we've got the compact ramping and Giga Mexico should be finishing construction and ramping the compact. That year, Tesla should do over 3 million with the compact car now ramping from Giga Texas. I give it 3.2 million vehicles as an estimate.
In 2027, with the compact ramping in two locations, look for Tesla to shock the world with 2 million compact cars and hit 5 million or more vehicles.
By this time, the 3rd location for the compact should be building them. I also think Tesla will consider the compact at Giga Berlin and Giga Shanghai.
Also, by this time, autonomy should be solved or at least at level 4, greatly increasing the value of all Tesla vehicles.
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The Vertical Take-Off: Around 2027/2028
By the time 2028 rolls around, the sub-compact will begin being worked on and this is the Coup de Grâce of all vehicles, an around $15,000 vehicle with full autonomy.
This vehicle will flood the world, and be one of two primary autonomous vehicles for Tesla, with the other being a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals - just a center screen to type in locations.
This vehicle could only have a 200-mile range and being fully autonomous, it would be highly sought after.
Don't forget about Tesla energy and its continued growth and Tesla working on FSD and the Tesla Bot.
Production of "Redwood" - The Tesla Compact Model Will Begin in June 2025 and Have Two Models - According To Three Sourceshttps://t.co/Kon1ZxkYOy$TSLA @Tesla @torquenewsauto #compactcar #redwood #crossover #sedan #suv #twentyfivethousanddollars
— Jeremy Noel Johnson (@AGuyOnlineHere) January 24, 2024
Patience is the key for investing in Tesla. Real gains won't be realized in the next couple of years, but one year - or even one moment, the Bot is going to be shown doing real labor - at a fast food joint or somewhere, and FSD will be shown working without a driver in the car and dubbed Level 4 or Level 5.
It's going to look like an overnight success and then BAM, the stock goes up 500% that year.
Tesla will get to 20 million vehicles from its sub-compact and robotaxi vehicle. Tesla autonomous vehicles will become iconic in the world, transporting people cheaply and efficiently.
Patience to all Tesla investors. I can't think of any other company doing the things that Tesla is for this world we live in, and yes, all things carry risk, but this is one risk I'm willing to take and have put significant amounts of my capital toward (while small to most people), the amounts are not small to me.
Not financial advice, do your own due diligence, etc...
You got this $TSLA investors.
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What do you think about Tesla - is it going to be relatively flat for a while and then vertical one day?
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Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn or watch my short Tesla videos on TikTok to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.
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Article Reference: Just me, sharing my own thoughts :)