The Staggering Economics of the Tesla Semi

Diesel Truck engine weighs ~3000lbs, Transmission weighs ~800 lbs = 3,800 lbs
Tesla pack at 1000kWh = 11,000 lbs. no engine, no transmission. Motors weigh a few hundred lbs. The weight difference is ~ 8,000 lbs for long-haul, but probably more like 4,000 lbs for short-haul. The "weight freight" problem is there, but not as big as people think.

A diesel truck might be able to travel 1800 miles on a single tank, but that doesn't mean the driver doesn't stop along the way on the 36-hr trip -- meals, bathroom, etc. These are great opportunities to charge. One hour of charging at 1MW gets 500 miles of range (10 hours of driving time). SAE J-3271 standard for Megawatt Charging Systems is in the works at up to 4.5MW/port.

Coal is dead. 20 years ago, the grid was >50% coal. Now it's <20%. The grid won't likely use coal in 10 years. For the last decade the major additions to the grid have been wind and solar and a bit of natural gas. Gas is dying, too. It's all about economics, not politics.

Hi, I use to run a shipping department. 200 miles isn't realistic. I had 4 routes and a local. The shortest one was 348 one way. The local still ran over 200 miles a day as much as 400 depending on who wanted product. All of my drivers were over 8 hours at the end of the day. The 500 mile range simply limits this truck's usefulness. Simple math completely shuts this down for anything except short local runs, 75 miles x 8 hours is 600 miles. Yeah you can stop and charge for lunch.... If the driver stops in a place with a charger. So now you're talking about installing chargers at every rest area and wide spot in the road. I'm not trying to be a troll here, but this is far from ready for prime time

Your article is a assumption! You really do not have any facts to bass your statements on, as I type this there may be 10 Tesla semi test mules in existence- -

Sweet so all of of the Pepsi products will be cheaper for consumers then right? We will see some savings? Or.. just the guys who own the company get more money?

Synopsis, not worth the change or we have to change. World weather has changed. Major contributors need to change YEARS AGO! For our grand children's health. All EV's are just evolving nothing perfect was created on the first attempt. Humans first crawl, hold a hand and then walked on there own, no one ran from the womb. Let us encourage change with knowledge of the past.
I C E served a purpose now move forward, our grand children are worth it.

I am a actual truck driver. This is my take. The only semi that tesla is going to be able to convert over to electric is the ones like Pepsi Co or other trucks that go round trip less than 500 miles. Yes these trucks do exist I typically do less than 500 miles a day and come home and park it but than the facility would have to install charging systems. The math is kinda wrong assuming 7 cents per kwh to charge the semis it is more like 15. Not to mention typically most quick chargers on the road charge 50 cents per kwh so you are looking at 500 dollars to recharge the truck on the road which at that point it is best to buy diesel.
Final point is we are seeing data from the F150 lightening showing towing data of 1.4 miles per kwh pulling a 7000 lb trailer so I am honestly doubtful that a semi truck is going to pull a 46000 lb load 500 miles with a 1000 kwh battery pack and further how much does that battery pack weigh?

Pretty disappointing article. It's based on a tweet from someone who, as far as I can tell, is some random dude. You can't even respond to his tweet and fact check hlm because of his Twitter settings! The idea you can get electricity at $0.07/kWh is laughable. My utility company is nonprofit and I pay nearly double that rate. If you look at the typical supercharger rates they are closer to $0.25/kWh. Now make that a megacharger and it's likely going to be even more expensive due to having to handle charging at a faster rate. Cost per mile for fuel will likely be nearly equal especially when diesel comes back down to normal prices. The true savings on these trucks is in the maintenance.

You people that write these pro-ev articles need to get a grip! Everything you write is ev is better than gas in every way, which is total bs! This article you wrote an ev has less wear on the brakes, how do you figure? All EV vehicles weigh more than regular gas vehicles, in fact they weigh thousands of pounds more, so how do you get that? In fact, heavier loads from ev vehicles is actually going to tear up the roads and highways more and how are they going to get repaired when a majority of the funding for roads comes from the sales if gas? So if everyone has an ev, the government is going to have to tax everyone more money elsewhere to pay for the roads! I don't see how this works out to be better for anyone! This is all one big huge pipe dream that costs everyone more money in the long run! An ev is identical to a gasoline vehicle except for it's power source! All maintenance costs are the same except for oil changes, woopee ding dong! Get your facts straight before selling this ev non sense.

How much will the Tesla semi cost vs the avg cost for a new diesel semi. How long before the new Tesla pays for itself. Guessing they will be significantly more expensive than the diesel option.

Local work would be perfect for ev. But over the road? Thats years out. I can see the long lines on the exit ramps for charging stations . Guys sitting in line for days..
They will need to come up with new ours of service just to accommodate this isdue.0

This is a case of the product we like gets the best case scenario and the one we dislike gets the worst. I'm nit against electric vehicles but they need time to develop properly. My son's freightliner gets 9.5 mpg under deal conditions and fuel can be had for 4.50 a gallon at some places it travels. It cost about 12,000 to rebuild the engine verses 200,000 for a battery.

Spoiler alert!!! Zero Tesla Semi's will be delivered in 2022. Zero will be delivered in 2023.

If it has a range of 200 miles per day your going to be traveling maybe 150 miles before needing a recharge. I guess it would depend on how long it takes to recharge. Customers could be waiting for a long time if the load is to run 1000 + miles unless that recharge is quick. Downtime costs money in trucking. The article didnt mention that.

Does anyone know if the concept of fabricating the lower portion of the trailer, or perhaps a chassis (not the semi truck) with a battery system.
You can have trailers loaded up and charged sitting at a depot that can supply the electrical power to the prime mover.
I see it possible with an intermodal type configuration. Currently that space is utilized by some configurations for a generator that powers reefer containers.
Just a thought?

The problem that I have is that I have to buy shares in the whole company if I want to invest in Tesla trucks.

I realized this is a post from a Tesla investor and praises for Tesla is all one sided. I don’t know if my opinion even matters. But, I will point out just one thing with the economics of electric trucking: Time. With current charging technology, that semi needs at least 2 hours to get 80% charge. With the standard load that American trailers will have on semi’s, the range on these hauls will be 150 miles or less. So, if a truck has to take 2 hour breaks every 150 miles or so…well, there, that economics is broken doesn’t matter how you slice and dice the per mile energy costs. The time cost is horrendous. Just ask Volvo how their European electric truck business is going. There, the trucks are half the size of American semi’s and charging time is eating into delivery time. Don’t overlook this aspect of trucking.

I don't get all th nimrods commenting all the negativity. EV semi is going to completely take over the short hall deliver sector in no time at all. Weight is rarely a concern on local short hall deliveries, range should be plenty adequate vs loading time and route miles..

Why sure!! Wind farms are economic too... For the developer, for the manufacturer, for the investors... Just not for the birds, the ecology, the utility payers. Everyone makes money from we the people. How do you dispose of wind machines?
For ev how much ecology is ripped up mining there lithium? Where do you dispose used batteries? Gov is not your friend, well armed IRS is not your friend. Time to defund gov. Abandon $ and let creditors suck ass.

Pepsi and other customers have done the math on this and they wouldn't be buying electric trucks if they didn't think there was a real economic advantage. The calculations are much more complicated than what is presented here, but I expect there are niche scenarios where this makes a lot of sense right now, and more when things such as onsite charging and full self driving become available.

Proof read your article! I stopped reading at the 2nd spelling error. You're supposed to be a professional journalist.

Question: Would extra tire wear need to be factored into an unbiased look at the expenses of electric semis? I believe it is true that extra tire wear due to the mass of the battery pack on electric automobiles will be a concern for owners. Perhaps innovative tire technology will be an outcome of this problem.

Where would I recharge my Tesla semi truck???
I'm in Stockton California.

You really should actually know about trucking before posting.
Even local LTL drivers drive more then 200 miles a day.
I do over 500 to 650 a day.

Most places I have delivered to over the last 22 years could not have charging stations installed as contrary to what people think, you can't put them everywhere.
And you have zero idea of how quickly they will be destroyed wherever they are.
There is also a huge parking shortage already.

This technology is just barely working for the local short LTL segment.

Not ready for the big roads yet.

Staggeringly ridiculous, deceptive article.

First, the Tesla should be compared to a modern, fuel efficient semi tractor like the 9.3 mpg Freightliner (or others) instead of the ridiculous 5.9 MPG mentioned. I'm surprised the author didn't compare the Tesla's efficiency to a team of mules and the cost of oats

Second, diesel has averaged about $3 per gallon for the last few years. The $4.99 mentioned in the article is ridiculous and deceptive unless you only want to keep your Tesla truck for about the next two weeks.

Third, and most ridiculous....7 cents/ kWh!? Who cares if Tesla says they CAN sell it for that? They are currently selling it for about $0.25 per kilowatt hour at the superchargers. About double that in California where they have all of that "cheap" wind and solar power (and with electricity prices trending up.)

With realistic numbers, Tesla has no advantage, other than maybe that it's driver gets to take a nap every 3 hrs while its recharging.