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The Staggering Economics of the Tesla Semi

The economics of the Tesla semi show that it is about 83% cheaper to drive and haul goods than a standard diesel truck. Not to mention the reduction in cost due to less maintenance. The Tesla semi will truly disrupt the trucking industry.

The Staggering Economics of the Tesla Semi

The Tesla Semi is going to start deliveries this year and there is some staggering economics of how much better it will be than a diesel truck.

Elon Musk has stated that the Tesla semi will start shipping this year and that it will have 500 miles of range. This is after many delays, but Tesla is finally ready to start delivering it to customers. In Elon's Master Plan, Part 2, he made reference to building an electric semi.

The first customer of the Tesla semi is not known to the public yet. Some think it will be PepsiCo because they placed an order for 100 electric semi trucks. Tesla will build out Mega Chargers for the Tesla semi in order to make sure it can charge quickly.

The Economics of the Tesla Semi

If you look at average fuel prices and use the website for U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), you can see about how much it costs for a trip for a diesel truck on a highway per gallon of diesel fuel. This ends up being about $4.99.

If you use a distance of 200 miles, you can do a calculation with a miles per gallon around 6 and come up with about 34 gallons (at 5.9 miles per gallon). This is simply for the average diesel truck.

With some simple math, you can take 34 gallons * $4.99, which is $169.76 for the cost of fuel for that diesel truck. This equals about 85 cents per mile. The Tesla semi, which is an electric truck, can take that same load and move it 200 miles. With electricity, you must think about it differently.

We can use a 2 kWh per mile usage for the Tesla Semi even though Tesla says the energy consumption is less than that. This will make calculating more simple. If you take 200 miles * 2 kWh per mile, you get a total of 400 kWh consumed. Tesla can also provide an energy cost of about 7 cents per kWh.

You can then take that 400 kWh * $0.07 per kWh which equals $28 total for the 200 mile drive. This is about 14 cents per mile. With this you get:

* A diesel truck trip at 200 miles is $169.76
* A Tesla semi truck trip at 200 miles is $28.00

This is a savings of about 83% and the Tesla semi will have less wear and tear on its brakes, less maintenance due to having no engine and oil changes, along with being a source of clean energy.

For more information on this, you can see this Tweet thread by Alex Gayer:

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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.

Image Credit, Ryan Shaw, Screenshot

Comments

John (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 2:01PM

This calculation is misleading. Trucking revenue is a function of payload - with heavier batteries you get less payload, so the trucker will make less money per haul.

Sal8110 (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 2:30PM

Just looked it up, the semi can carry the same load as a diesel and gets 500 mile range. There are about 1200 truck stops on interstates. 500 miles is about 10 hours the DOT allowes 11 hours of driving and then you need a 8 hour break. That is why you see 100s of trucks parked at truck stops.Makes sense to charge it up while you are parked. It all makes sense and building the infrastructure will be easy, the truck stops will want to do it. They make most of the profit selling items in their stores. It works out for everyone in the long run

Marc (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 2:55PM

Electricity is more like 30 to 40+ cents per kWhr. So that brings the cost of the electric semi completely in line with fossil.

WADE FARNSWORTH (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 3:51PM

You have failed to factor in some environmental impacts.
The diesel fuel used to mine the materials for the building of the batteries, crude oil needed for the production of plastics, tires, asbestos for brake linings and steel for frames, brake drums the works. Also where do you think the power cones from to charge them? Hydroelectric ( which is in serious trouble from a drought in the west) coal fired and natural gas fired power plants, maybe some renewable sources and nuclear plants.
I think electric trucks have a place but are they the next Peterbuilt? No, not by a long shot. In local lol companies maybe. UPS and Usps would benefit.
They will never be able to replace diesel powered trucks unless we disrupt our entire supply chain.
Keep developing of course but don't white wash over the impacts.

George (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 3:51PM

Right now electric rate is .11 cents. Overages go to .13 or .14. There's no way our current electric grid will maintain current lower prices.

Ed Schechter (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 3:52PM

How much do the batteries weigh, and how much of an impact does this have on the payload capacity?

Kevin Reese (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 4:23PM

The level and magnitude of mass hypnosis that untold millions of Americans live under regarding clean energy is truly horrific. The gas, oil, coal companies have been sowing lies fear and disbelief into the mental and feeling world of mankind for over a century. And soft minded people keep on endlessly repeating their nonsense.
The entirety of Creation is DESIGNED to be and powered by Solar energy! Every plant, flower, green leaf gets all its energy from the sun. That in turn gives life and energy to higher forms of Life, us !
The oil, gas and coal industries pollute the planet, poison the air You breath, melt the glaciers, your drinking water, contaminate the oceans and are raising the sea level .
Some people want to pay ever and ever increasing prices for gas, for electricity when ALL THE POWER THEY NEED IS FREE COMING FROM THE SUN ☀️
All we have to do is harvest it!
You’d rather be a slave to oil,gas and coal industry destroy Gods good Earth, and pay endlessly to your lord and masters to keep you forever in debt and complaining. No way out ! No solution! Just keep whining and complaining and paying all your life.
You know what the word “ Metamoia” means?
A Greek word from the Bible Jesus used, literally “ Change your Mind”! Translated to English “ Repent”
Do you want to be a slave or a free person? The choice is yours. CHANGE YOUR MIND!
Thank you

Joseph Bruns (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 6:53PM

It's a boondoggle just like starlink..promised $50/mo took my $100 and now wants $500 per month and 2g to install. It will cost an order of magnitude greater than anything Musk promised. Wait till the Tesla owners start replacing batteries when they can't afford a new car. Remember most people can't. A debt reckoning day is coming.

Dan (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 7:16PM

The efficiency calculation doesn't consider the real possibility of per mile fees for EVs to make up for lost fuel tax revenue. The average federal and state combined fuel tax is over $0.50 per gallon. This tax funds much of the reconstruction and maintenance of highways. Trucks cause a disproportionate amount of wear and tear on pavements and are sure to be targeted for replacement costs.

John (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 8:19PM

Alas, it's not only about cost per mile, it's about time to delivery...moving from pickup dock to delivery dock as quickly as possible. As the buyer of goods, I need the delivery as quickly as possible. Drivers cannot drive more than 11 consecutive hours, nor be on duty more than 14 consecutive hours. Unless that cost savings reduces the cost of moving my load, I'm passing on the Tesla driver.

Jeremy Johnson    August 15, 2022 - 9:54PM

Thanks everyone for sharing. I assume that most Tesla semi's will stop at Tesla Mega Chargers, which should be powered by solar and have a lower cost per kWh.

Diesel semi trucks appear to run anywhere between $40K and $120K for the higher end ones. I consider the Tesla semi a very high end semi. Like all EVs, there is a bit higher cost upfront to buy right now while they are in the exponential growth curve.

Thanks everyone for your feedback.

Leslye Robinson (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 10:39AM

In reply to by Jeremy Johnson

I think your assumptions matter less than your math. Plug in whatever costs and look at the difference. Your costs look a little biased toward the Tesla, but a even a 10% lower cost of ownership and operation is hugh in the transport business. The arc is bending defiantly toward electric trucks and should have been the starting place. More room for batteries and much more reliant on torque to get the job done. this segment will convert to EV faster than passenger vehicles, and you've analyzed the why.

Clinton E Querry (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 9:55PM

What I don't understand is why they don't use the tesla solar panels on the top and put the recharger batteries on back and then when power gets low turn it on and charge it while you drive. I'm a truck driver I can drive over 860 miles and average 7 miles a gallon. With stops and stuff I can run 24 hrs before fueling. And I don't see drivers wanting to stop for an hr at a truck stop to charge or a charger being available when you get there. All your going to have are dead trucks on the side of the highway.

Sukkad (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 10:39PM

What about load carrying capacity? I believe weight of battery is staggeringly higher for semi's compared to ICE. In kwh calculation, weight will be significant aspect.

Billy Mays (not verified)    August 15, 2022 - 10:43PM

Weird that everyone is talking about how much the cost of the electricity but nobody is addressing how much a 500 mile range battery would weigh, which is like the second most important thing for trucks. A full tank of diesel is between 1000 and 2000 pounds depending on capacity. 7 pounds per gallon, 200 gal tank ~1400 pounds.

Tim (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 11:07AM

In reply to by Billy Mays (not verified)

The Tesla pack energy density continue to improve. in 2021 they were at 186 Wh/kg, so we can assume it'll be over 200 for the Semi. That means a 500 mile pack shouldn't be more 5000 kg or 11000 pounds. How much they'll need to make the rest of the semi is yet to be seen, but I'm sure that'll be one of the first thing we learn when they hit production.

Steve (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 5:22AM

A large part of ICE fuel cost is tax that (supposedly) goes to highway costs. EVs currently pay nothing toward this infrastructure. That will need to change as will the EV/ICE comparison spreadsheet.

Ubong-Abasi (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 8:18AM

Also, to give a finishing punch. The roof of the semi should be gladed with high efficiency panels. Since the surface area is much, it can house panels that can increase the range by 10 miles on the road and on parking....

Wildgulo (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 11:32AM

Is this mileage rating an average or full load? There are these things out here in the west called Mountains! Plenty of unhappy EV owners who got less than half the stated mileage when towing a load up a grade. A semi runs out of juice on a grade.. then what? Mobile charging stations? The tech is great.. but is it practical anywhere except flat ground.

Tim (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 1:45PM

In reply to by Wildgulo (not verified)

What you lose going up, you gain going down in an EV. The overall range doesn't change much. Electric trucks can go up and down mountains much faster, saving time. They have much more torque and power to maintain speed on the way up and they don't have to turn that energy into heat and dissipate it on the way down.

Stephen M Smith (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 11:46AM

Is the electricity made from coal or natural gas? If so then where is the carbon reduction advantage?

Jon Burnes (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 11:49AM

This report is ignoring the diesel tech already in existence now. Volvo semi trucks are achieving over 12 miles per gallon. These comparisons are significantly ludicrous when not using "All of Today's" Available Technology. This article is avoiding the real science and technology. Please be honest (comprehensive) in you studies.

Jon Burnes (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 11:51AM

This report is ignoring the diesel tech already in existence now. Volvo semi trucks are achieving over 11 miles per gallon. These comparisons are significantly ludicrous when not using "All of Today's" Available Technology. This article is avoiding the real science and technology. Please be honest (comprehensive) in you studies.

Charles V Scholz (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 11:59AM

Interesting how people conveniently leave out tha 85 percent of of electricity is generated by coal and natural gas. Ohhhh so green. Then there is the degradation of the batteries over the life of the truck, so that 3 years later the range of a full charge is about half of that 500 miles, not to mention the pollution from disposing of spent batteries that are toxic and not recyclable, I could go on. There is a place for these in urban areas probably not so much in interstate trucking.

John M (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 12:17PM

Bunk. Test L’S investor protecting his bad investment

“Researchers “Tesla truck takes the energy of 4000 homes to recharge”