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The Staggering Economics of the Tesla Semi
The Tesla Semi is going to start deliveries this year and there is some staggering economics of how much better it will be than a diesel truck.
Elon Musk has stated that the Tesla semi will start shipping this year and that it will have 500 miles of range. This is after many delays, but Tesla is finally ready to start delivering it to customers. In Elon's Master Plan, Part 2, he made reference to building an electric semi.
The first customer of the Tesla semi is not known to the public yet. Some think it will be PepsiCo because they placed an order for 100 electric semi trucks. Tesla will build out Mega Chargers for the Tesla semi in order to make sure it can charge quickly.
The Economics of the Tesla Semi
If you look at average fuel prices and use the website for U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), you can see about how much it costs for a trip for a diesel truck on a highway per gallon of diesel fuel. This ends up being about $4.99.
If you use a distance of 200 miles, you can do a calculation with a miles per gallon around 6 and come up with about 34 gallons (at 5.9 miles per gallon). This is simply for the average diesel truck.
With some simple math, you can take 34 gallons * $4.99, which is $169.76 for the cost of fuel for that diesel truck. This equals about 85 cents per mile. The Tesla semi, which is an electric truck, can take that same load and move it 200 miles. With electricity, you must think about it differently.
We can use a 2 kWh per mile usage for the Tesla Semi even though Tesla says the energy consumption is less than that. This will make calculating more simple. If you take 200 miles * 2 kWh per mile, you get a total of 400 kWh consumed. Tesla can also provide an energy cost of about 7 cents per kWh.
You can then take that 400 kWh * $0.07 per kWh which equals $28 total for the 200 mile drive. This is about 14 cents per mile. With this you get:
* A diesel truck trip at 200 miles is $169.76
* A Tesla semi truck trip at 200 miles is $28.00
This is a savings of about 83% and the Tesla semi will have less wear and tear on its brakes, less maintenance due to having no engine and oil changes, along with being a source of clean energy.
For more information on this, you can see this Tweet thread by Alex Gayer:
The jaw-dropping economics of electric truckingThe retail price of a semi-truck is often discussed when comparing diesel vs. electric, however the potential disparity becomes far less relevant when the economics of operation are concerned.— Al≡x Gay≡r (@alex_gayer) August 11, 2022
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.
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Comments
The cost per kwh is
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In reply to Bunk. Test L’S investor by John M (not verified)
The cost per kwh is irrelevant when you remeber that these drivers get paid by the amount of time it takes to deliver the goods. Standard diesels, Correct if I'm wrong, get 1000 miles on a tank. Tesla is predicting 500 miles for their best semi. I know from experience from Los Angeles to oregon is 707 miles and takes 11:30 at the speed limit, as low as 8-9 if speeding in a normal car. Meaning its entirely possible to go 200 miles beyond the predicted range of a tesla semi, but with a tesla semi youre going to have to stop and charge up for what 2, 3 hours? Tesla semis will probably be used for short distance intercity travel ie amazon delivering from the downtown Los anglees warehouse to the Victorville one. There is also the point that tesla would have to make a 1000 mile semi to compete for long haul truckers, but the issue is that if the tesla semi weighs 18-20k pounds as predicted, a 1k mile one would weigh 25-35k lbs which cuts into their 80k lbs limit.
Every comment here takes one
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In reply to The cost per kwh is by Xoatlas (not verified)
Every comment here takes one piece of completely wrong information and uses it as a reason why the Semi won't work. You even included a question mark with yours, because you weren't sure it was right.
"Stop and charge up for what 2, 3 hours?" No, stop and charge up for 20, 30 minutes. The semi can go for 5½ hours and charge for a half hour, and do that continuously. That's 22 hours a day on the road. You can't do much better with a diesel.
You’re forgetting that 200
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You’re forgetting that 200 miles worth of fuel weighs a twentieth of 200 miles worth of battery, which due to freight limits on roads would drop load capacity from 19T on a traditional semi to 3 tons on a Tesla semi, or 9 if his claim of an extra 50% battery capacity by weight is true
Terrible article. No benefits
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Terrible article. No benefits matter as long as the payload is so low. 3 ton. Thats it. Versus 20 tons for a diesel truck. Youd NEVER be able to pull profit unless you are hauling tissue paper.
3 tons is like maybe 2 pallets of water. And they will never increase weight limits because as it is 99% + of road damage is from trucks already states cant afford to pay the 2 to 3 times more for a tesla semi hauling its heavy ass around. Also bridges and overpasses are built for decades based on this limit of a tesla semi came accross at an extra 17tons they kill people.
Every comment here takes one
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In reply to Terrible article. No benefits by Daryl Washburn (not verified)
Every comment here takes one piece of completely wrong information and uses it as a reason why the Semi won't work. Don't you think if there was solid reason why it wouldn't work, it would've been addressed already?
You assumed that the semi would weigh an extra 34,000 pounds. Why? A 500 mile battery is less that 11,000 pounds. An electric truck doesn't have all the weight of the engine, transmission, fuel tanks, and all the other peripherals of running on diesel like urea injection and exhaust pipes. There's no torque on the frame and the truck is shorter, so that'll weigh less too. We're probably looking an extra 2 tons, not 17.
The problem is 500 miles, my
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The problem is 500 miles, my brother averaged 1200 miles a day and didn't have time to sit at a charger.
.07 cents per kilowatt hour.
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.07 cents per kilowatt hour. I get a discount on electricity and buy at the lowest rate of .17 cent per kilowatt hour. How does any company pay for less than half of a discounted rate like that. Just to transmit the electricity costs more than .07 cents. Your rate assumption is too low, unless you have some proof that .07 cents is a guaranteed rate.
This cost per mile doesn't
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This cost per mile doesn't take into account the energy costs to create the batteries. While it may be cheaper on the road, all electric vehicles come preloaded with environmental costs out the gate
You don't seem to understand
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In reply to This cost per mile doesn't by David Maughan (not verified)
You don't seem to understand much, maybe start reading more.
If half the "cars" on the
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If half the "cars" on the road are electric and 10% of them are being charged up at one time America will have 160,000 MW added demand to the nations power grid. That's 80 new fuel fired power generating stations. Shouldn't someone be concerned about that or will we need to live without light and AC to accommodate this leftist fantasy.
Anyone ask how much it costs
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Anyone ask how much it costs to mine the lithium? Anyone ask how much lithium is on the planet? How long is this viable for? Anyone ask how bad the harvesting of the mineral is on the planet? How about the damage to the habitat in the area they are mining for the minerals? Are they mining with electric drills and excavation equipment? Green energy doesn't mean no carbon footprint. Makes people feel good but it's not actually good for the planet.
Once we are all using
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Once we are all using electric the cost will go up due to demand. Our grid cant support such a change and it still requires oil to create the electricity so this is the major sucker play! Go electric and have major outages and only the rich will be going anywhere. If this was all about the planet then they would not be denying tax credits for Teslas. So political!!!
Once we are all using
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Once we are all using electric the cost will go up due to demand. Our grid cant support such a change and it still requires oil to create the electricity so this is the major sucker play! Go electric and have major outages and only the rich will be going anywhere. If this was all about the planet then they would not be denying tax credits for Teslas. So political!!!
This entire article is based
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This entire article is based on phantasy, 7 cents a kwh? That's the lowest I've seen anywhere in the country, the average is 15 cents a kwh and on top of that the study have shown that superchargers are 4 times the cost of the local electricity. So this isn't even close, REAL numbers would be the national average of 15 cents a hour, times 4 for the supercharger for 60 cents a kwh. Multiply by 400 kwh and your at 240 for the trip. Not to mention one of the reasons it's been delayed is they where testing in ohio and with a loaded truck struggled to get 100 miles in winter time. For those who don't k own lithium ion is a chemical reaction to charge and discharge electricity. Like everything else this happens slower in the cold, at 32 degrees you loose 30% battery capacity, and take 30% longer to charge. All numbers provided for range and such at at 72 degrees everything above and below that starts to reduce battery capacity. Finally the flow of electricity generates heat, heat increases resistance, increased resistance causes increased electricity usage as it takes more power just to flow through the system let alone actually do work. In other words electricity looses range exponentially faster when loaded than a ice engine because while the work needed to move the load is the same, the parasitic losses from friction, heat, ect grow exponentially as the vehicle is loaded down. Meanwhile a semi empty vs fully loaded only sees about a .5 mpg decrease as the system itself doesn't use extra energy to function
There are so many mis
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There are so many mis-spellings in this post and bad grammar....was it written by a bot? Or someone in a foreign land? Not good....
Totally wrong not 7c per kw
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Totally wrong not 7c per kw more likely 18to 34c per kwh .please be honest about facts. Yes it's will be better and cheapest butt Nothing close to 7c !!!NO ONE PAYS 7C PER KWH. Fact check better next time.
$0.07 per kWh is the
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In reply to Totally wrong not 7c per kw by Alex Rubin (not verified)
$0.07 per kWh is the contracted price that comes with the Tesla Semi at Tesla Megachargers.
It's all just "smoke and
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It's all just "smoke and mirrors" from the Liberal Greenies who are perpetuating this worldwide hoax. Costs of operation for EVs will skyrocket in the future... As demand for electricity and battery materials increases, so will prices, just like fossil fuels. Tires for EVs cost substantially more, wear out faster, and the microscopic rubber particles pollute the air and water more than ICE vehicles.
And, let not anyone forget the costs of battery replacement, disposal, and additional firefighting equipment needed to extinguish those horrific battery fires.
EVs are a scam!!!
Item $cost/Change 100k
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Item $cost/Change 100k
2015Ram2500Cummins 4dr 4x4 Diesel 6speed
Fuel $1.25-3.60 20mpg 7-18k
Recycled Contract $2.00
Oil+filter $100/10k. 1k
Fuel filters $20/10sets 200
Bulk purchased 18sets
Trans & transfer Case. 200
2.5gallons x 3per100k
Diff 3x 5qt $5qt. 125
Radiator 6gallons. 125
Power steering. 75
Wipers 4x. 75
Wipers fluid. 25
Tires 33k $250set. 750
New Take offs Transforce
275-70-18 10ply
Fuel filter External tank 50
Brake pads. 200
Carwash. 100
FanBelt+ radiator hoses 150
Air filter kn wash. 25
Clutch $1k/300k. 333
Batteries $300/5yrs. 60
Insurance$2k x2. 4000
Registration $400x2. 800
Driving license $100x2. 200
Parts collection over years
$3000+cash at 80% off=
$15,000 return. Plus+
Deleted RAM system$1600 + Edge2 $200 +
4 wheel spacers $100+
Rustoleom paint $100=$2k
CERT emergency stuff $1k
Camper& assessories $1k
(Glocks PTRs Ar15sAmmo)
Above amortized costs
$7k cost over 500k=1.4c
Subtotal 100k= $20-30k
Cents Per mile total 20-30c✓
RETAIL CostAAA 40-65cents/mile
500k miles=$99to$150,000
8yr return monthy=$2-3k or
$200-300k saved vs Retail
FRUGAL & Resourceful
500,000 miles cost RAM
+$7k amortized SPARE parts stored in garage Nevada
+$99-150k 500k (5x100k)
+$30k truck cost
$130-180,000 5yrs CASH cost
Vs. Tesla 500,000miles
Car $99-125k
Registration insurance driver's license costs(same)8kyr. 40k
Tires 25sets @$2000. 50k
Electric10cents mile 50k
Wipers & fluids. 1k
WashWax$200/20k= 5k
2 battery packs $50k
Brake system repairs. 5k
Bearings with breaks. 2k
Annual inspection$500. 3k
Estimated sub total $350-401k
Estimate 70-80cents/mile
Vs. Est. 23-38cents RAM
Cost data was collected from the Tesla fleet and estimated for 5-years and 60,000 miles
Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus: $0.55 per mile
500,000 Miles Total Costs=
Tesla 500k cost. $350-400k
RamCASHCost $130-180k
John saved CASH. $220-220k
You forgot to mention that
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You forgot to mention that tires on e-cars and trucks wear out faster than regular cars and trucks because the e cars and trucks weigh more. Also, the cost to replace a battery can be $10K plus. It is advertised that the average battery will last 10 years, this remains to be seen.
Both diesel and electric
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In reply to You forgot to mention that by Scott C Yanover (not verified)
Both diesel and electric trucks have a max weight of 80,000 pounds, so tire wear should be similar.
"It is advertised that the average battery will last 10 years."
Who advertised that? I can only assume it was an oil company or a company selling non-electric vehicles. Electric car batteries are expected to outlast the car's that come with them. Past 20 years, corrosion becomes a risk. Electric semis might be able to wear out the batteries in 10 years, but only if they're driven enough to consume a million dollars of fuel in a diesel truck. Then just take a part of the fuel savings and buy a new truck.
I'm just wondering what the
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I'm just wondering what the cost of the electric semis batteries would be over its lifetime compared to the cost of a diesel semi and it's lifetime. How many miles will an electric semi be able to go before it has to replace its batteries. If batteries are expensive this could easily end up costing you more than a diesel semi several times over during it's lifetime.
Modern lithium batteries can
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In reply to I'm just wondering what the by Scott (not verified)
Modern lithium batteries can endure several thousand cycles. In a truck with 500 miles of range, a million miles is 2000 cycles. Even then, it just runs with reduced range. The bigger problem with batteries is the corrosion that destroys them over time. This will be a problem for 20+ year old trucks. Diesel trucks might have a cost advantage for long haul trucks that are driven less than 25,000 miles a year, but I don't think there are many trucks like that.
What is price of truck????
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What is price of truck????
How heavy is truck???
Will it cause less damage to roadway!!!
Who will pay for it so??
Trucks in the US are limited
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In reply to What is price of truck???? by Jose maltos (not verified)
Trucks in the US are limited in weight to 80,000 pounds. Electric trucks are no exception.
In the end the public is
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In the end the public is going to get hurt. How much waste and carbon you think it takes to build one of those. Charging will take long affecting how long a driver can really drive. This will be a more local truck only. 500 miles of range is too unrealistic more like 150 miles of range tops 200 miles. Plus the electrical grid is already stressed and not all electricity is made by renewable ways. This will only make electricity go up more.
Not so good a rip-off of the
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Not so good a rip-off of the Twitter thread.. At least you referenced it.
Funny how you didn't consider
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Funny how you didn't consider that there is yet to be a road tax on electric vehicles or the fact that the semi would be extremely ineffective due to having a heavier ground weight in general. Semi's have maximum weight capacity and even with the range, it means less materia transported per truck just due to sheer weight. More trucks built= higher initial production cost. It's not viable until new battery tech is feasible.
Several issues:
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Several issues:
1) road taxes were not included. Politicians WILL be adding that in 1 way or another. Still, that will be far less than diesel.
2) parallel Systems is in testing/trials right now. By end of 2023, they will likely be approved. HUGE change coming in the long distance trucking.
Sure it's cheap, fElon Musk
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Sure it's cheap, fElon Musk feeds the unicorns extra pixie dust just before they 'ship' their 'trucks' (next year).